【出版时间及名称】：Chiba Banks Financials Forum takeaways: Medium-term structural challenges
【作者】：高盛
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：12
【目录或简介】：
China Financials Forum: Addressing medium-term structural
challenges, opportunities
We hosted the Caixin China Financials Development Forum featuring policy
makers such as NDRC/PBOC/CBRC/CIRC on Sept. 9, and the GS/Gao Hua
China Financials Corporate Day on Sept. 10 to discuss interest/exchange rate
reform, LGP loan risks, property tightening, insurance sector growth /
regulation, rural finance and land reform outlook, and consumer protection.
Interest rate reform: A med.-term challenge, not an imminent risk
Speakers highlighted the need to accelerate interest rate and exchange rate
reform in the light of current negative real deposit rates. Key takeaways: 1)
interest rate reform is a medium-term challenge for banks, but likely a gradual
process rather than an imminent risk; 2) some NIM pressure on big corporates
and mortgage loans is inevitable, but should be mitigated by: SME/other
corporate loan/deposit spread rise; China’s already relatively low NIM vs. EM
countries (e.g. Brazil, Indonesia, India, Turkey); and China banks’ low P/B vs.
current ROE, which has partly discounted NIM decline risks, in our view.
LGP loans: Not a systemic risk, but long-tailed on fiscal reform
Speakers underlined the rich resources, assets, and revenue collection rights
of many Chinese local governments, but pointed out potential NPLs from
highly leveraged LGPs. Municipal debt issuance will not happen for a while.
Property tightening: Commercial property less a risk for now
Speakers believe commercial property risk is not a big issue so far given its
early stage of sector development, low portion of rental vs. ownership, and
property tax applied to reduce speculation, etc.
Rural finance: Rural housing land reform to be trialled
Speakers believe rural finance should be viable given the high pricing
power if risks are well managed. We believe rural housing land reform
(piloted in rich areas) could have a significant positive impact on farmers’
personal wealth, consumption and financing activities.
Insurance: Carefully managed pricing deregulation process
Speakers are positive on the growth potential of insurance. They believe
regulators will maintain tight control on solvency margins, and life product
pricing deregulation will be carefully managed to avoid any negative impact.