This primer highlights structured analytic techniques—some widely used in the private
sector and academia, some unique to the intelligence profession. It is not a
comprehensive overview of how intelligence officers conduct analysis. Rather, the
primer highlights how structured analytic techniques can help one challenge judgments,
identify mental mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty. In short,
incorporating regular use of techniques such as these can enable one to structure
thinking for wrestling with difficult questions.

Contrarian Techniques. ...............................................................................................17
Devil’s Advocacy.魔鬼代言人分析法 ................................................................................................17
Team A/Team B 分组分析法. .................................................................................................19
High-Impact/Low-Probability Analysis黑天鹅（小概率事件）分析法. ...............................................................22
“What If?” Analysis.“假定”分析法
一共三十多页，为方便大家阅读，其中某些重点难点我还做了注释，对于从事财务分析也是很有帮助的，免费赠送了
Prepared by the US Government
March 2009