Chinese Banks:Rate Hike More Asymmetric But Expected and Manageable银行和金融服务

研究机构：花旗环球金融 分析师： Simon ... 撰写日期：2011年02月08日

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The PBOC announced a rate hike this evening - 1) Lending rates up to 3-yearmaturity were raised by 25bps, 3-5 year loans +23bps, and over 5-year loans+20bps; 2) The demand deposit rate was raised by 4bps - the first raise in this ratehike cycle; 3) Time deposit rates were raised by 25bps to 45bps, with the averageincrease being around 30bps (3M deposits +35bps, 6M +30bps, 1Y +25bp, 2Y+35bps, 3Y + 35bps, 5Y +45bps); 4) Note that despite the larger increases forlonger-term deposits, the impact of this is slight as only a small proportion ofdeposits (less than 10%) are over 1Y in duration.
Share price neutral - We believe this rate hike is neutral for share prices. Despitethis hike being more asymmetric than the previous hikes in Oct and Dec, webelieve the timing and nature of this hike have been well anticipated. Concernsover asymmetric rate hikes have been an overhang on the sector despite previousrate hikes being earnings positive - hence we believe the kind of asymmetric hikescurrently are priced in.
NIM and Earnings impact Minimal - We believe this rate hike is slightly negativefor the big banks (~1bps negative to NIMs; neutral to ~0.5% negative to earnings),and slightly positive for the smaller banks (~1-2bps positive to NIMs; ~1% positivefor CNCB and CMB). Overall, we think the lending and deposit rate changes arelargely neutral for the sector.
In line with expectations - This rate hike is in line with our expectations; our 2011earnings forecasts factor in a total of 100bps of lending rate hikes, and a certaindegree of asymmetric deposit rate hikes (time deposit rates +136bps). After thisrate hike, we continue to see improving NIMs (on avg about 13-14bpsimprovement each year in FY11E and FY12E) on the back of improved loanpricing (due to tighter credit supply) and higher bond yields and interbank rates.
Floor valuations - Rising inflation in the next few months will likely remain aheadwind for the sector. We believe much of the concerns are in the price, with anavg 11F P/B of 1.6x, about 1-standard deviation below the historical mean. Thepositive catalysts we would look for are: peaking of inflation (going into 2Q11),results in March (4Q10) and April (1Q11), which should show robust earningstrends (especially rising NIMs) and provide clarity on UDIV reclassifications/provisions and the pace for credit growth. Top picks: ABC (1288.HK; HK$3.78; 1L),CCB (0939.HK; HK$6.81; 1L), CMB (3968.HK; HK$18.52; 1L) and MSB (1988.HK;HK$6.64; 1M). Least preferred: CNCB (0998.HK; HK$5.06; 3L), BOC (3988.HK;HK$4.04; 2L).