Credit Suisse / Fixed Income Research: Focus Asia (Q2 2011): Hopes & Fears
Date: 20 Apr 2011
Language: English
Format: PDF
Pages: 96

Table of Contents

What risk stagflation? 4
A quick reminder 4
No shortage of shocks 4
1. The impact of oil… 5
2. The impact of the Japanese Earthquake 10
Interest rate implications…it’s kind of complicated 14
In conclusion 19
Key Non-Consensus Economic Calls 21
Korea to raise rates more than expected 21
Malaysia’s upside growth surprise 22
Recent NJA Economic Reports 24
Global Market Backdrop 26
Asia FX Strategy 29
Fixed income strategy – resilience to be tested 35
Non Japan Asia 42
China: Higher inflation and more rate hikes 43
Hong Kong: Everything points to higher inflation 47
India: Double-digit WPI inflation? 50
Indonesia: Still a need to squeeze 53
Korea: Inflation threat calls for more rate hikes 57
Malaysia: The stars are aligned 61
Philippines: Short-lived exuberance 64
Singapore: How much appreciation is enough? 67
Taiwan: Growth proceeds despite high oil price 70
Thailand: Politics, Prices, and Private consumption 74
Vietnam: Going through the storm 77
Historical data and Credit Suisse forecasts 80