<P><FONT size=4>Citigroup 花旗：中国2006年GDP增长10.7%源自消费与贸易</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=4> 25-Jan-07 2页英文</FONT></P>
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<P><FONT size=4>Tightening policies in 2006 had improved internal imbalance at the cost of external<BR>distortion. Although domestic consumption strengthened, weakening domestic<BR>demand, alongside investment moderation increased the trade surplus significantly.<BR>We continue to expect 6% appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar in 2007,<BR>driven by the government’s effort to stabilize the external account. To tighten the<BR>liquidity condition, the PBOC may raise reserve requirement two more times this<BR>year. We also expect a policy rate hike in the first half of this year to curb credit<BR>expansion, the asset bubble concern could push the expected hike from the second<BR>quarter to the first quarter of this year.</FONT></P>