Table of contents
Market valuation too bearish; strong fundamentals through 2012 2
Limited downside even under a worst-case scenario 3
Driver #1: 2011 is not the peak; 2012 looks to be even better 7
Driver #2: Consolidation to accelerate, better pricing discipline 9
Driver #3: Power shortages to offset summer demand weakness 9
Driver #4: Step-up in social housing in 2H, peak season demand to rise 11
Driver #5: FY11 earnings likely to beat, even after revisions 12
BBMG/Jidong Cement: significant earnings revisions; valuations 14
Anhui Conch (0914.HK, CL-Buy): More acquisitions likely 16
Anhui Conch risk/reward compelling under stress tests 18
CNBM (3323.HK, Buy): Strong capacity growth to continue 19
CNBM risk/reward compelling under stress tests 21
BBMG (2009.HK, Buy): Misunderstood and undervalued; Buy 22
Jidong (000401.SZ, Neutral): Downgrade to Neutral on valuation 31