K. John Holmes - Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

Reliable estimates of the costs and potential impacts on the United States economy of various emissions reduction and other mitigation strategies are critical to the development of the federal climate change research and development portfolio. At the request of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the National Academies organized a workshop, summarized in this volume, to consider some of these types of modeling issues.

Models are fundamental for estimating the possible costs and effectiveness of different policies for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There is a wide array of models to perform such analysis, differing in the level of technological detail, treatment of technological progress, spatial and sector details, and representation of the interaction of the energy sector to the overall economy and environment. These differences impact model results, including cost estimates. More fundamentally, these models differ as to how they represent fundamental processes that have a large impact on policy analysis--such as how different models represent technological learning and cost reductions that come through increasing production volumes, or how different models represent baseline conditions.

Contents
1 INTRODUCTION
2 USES AND ABUSES OF MARGINAL ABATEMENT SUPPLY CURVES
3 USES AND ABUSES OF LEARNING, EXPERIENCE, AND KNOWLEDGE CURVES
4 OFFSETS—WHAT’S ASSUMED, WHAT IS KNOWN/NOT KNOWN, AND WHAT DIFFERENCE THEY MAKE
5 STORY LINES, SCENARIOS, AND THE LIMITS OF LONG-TERM SOCIO-TECHNO-ECONOMIC FORECASTING
6 REFLECTIONS ON THE WORKSHOP
REFERENCES
APPENDIXES
A Workshop Announcement and Agenda
B Biographical Sketches of Planning Committee Members, Speakers, and Discussants
C Papers Submitted by Workshop Speakers
Paradigms of Energy Efficiency’s Cost and Their Policy Implications: Déjà Vu All Over Again
Energy Efficiency Cost Curves: Empirical Insights for Energy-Climate Modeling
The Perils of the Learning Model for Modeling Endogenous Technological Change
Uncertainties in Technology Experience Curves for Energy-Economic Models
Roles of Offsets in Global and Domestic Climate Policy
Carbon Offsets in Forest and Land Use
Measurement and Monitoring of Forests in Climate Policy Design
International Offsets Usage in Proposed U.S. Climate Change Legislation
The Politics and Economics of International Carbon Offsets
Developing Narratives for Next-Generation Scenarios for Climate Change Research and Assessment