Markets in China and Europe on the Eve of the Industrial Revolution

By Carol H. Shiue and Wolfgang Keller*
Why did Western Europe industrialize first? An influential view holds that its exceptionally
well-functioning markets supported with a certain set of institutions provided
the incentives to make investments needed to industrialize. This paper examines this
hypothesis by comparing the actual performance of markets in terms of market integration
in Western Europe and China, two regions that were relatively advanced
in the preindustrial period, but would start to industrialize about 150 years apart.
We find that the performance of markets in China and Western Europe overall was
comparable in the late eighteenth century. Market performance in England was
higher than in the Yangzi Delta, and markets in England also performed better than
those in continental Western Europe. This suggests strong market performance may
be necessary, but it is not sufficient for industrialization. Rather than being a key
condition for subsequent growth, improvements in market performance and growth
occurred simultaneously. (JEL N13, N15, O47)



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下图是我根据数据与清代地图匹配后绘制的安徽省1742-1795年的大米价格走势图



我们可以发现在1787年左右，安徽各州府的粮价都有明显的波动，我去查了下《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》，1785年安徽出现过全省性的严重干旱（图中的数字1代表涝，5代表旱）。