【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月美国交通与物流行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：40
【目录或简介】：
Q4 Shaping Up 'Better than Seasonal?'
■ Digging Deeper into the Data: As year-over-year comparisons become
less meaningful in the face of the one-year anniversary of the economic
collapse, we thought it would be useful to look at the data from our Heard on
24th Street survey on a sequential basis. To put the data into perspective, we
also compared the September to October 2009 sequential changes with the
September-October 5-year historical averages (from ’02 to ’07).
■ Demand Is Getting Better (in some measures): We find that several
economic indicators (mostly in industrial demand-related categories) do in
fact appear to be improving – as evidenced by above-normal seasonal
changes in auto sales, construction data, electricity demand and steel
production Exhibit 1. This could potentially translate into better than
seasonal average volumes for transport companies.
■ West Coast Port Data Also Points to Improvement: Loaded container
shipments in and out of the West Coast ports trended above normal in
October versus September. We suspect that the increase in Oct. inbound
volumes (+6% vs. normal flat) is likely due to a pushback in Sept. shipments
and some degree of retailer inventory restocking. The growth in exports
(+8% vs. normal +6%) could be attributable to the weak U.S. Dollar and
strengthening global markets.
■ But, the Consumer is Still Sluggish: Conversely, we note that the
consumer still seems hesitant to revert to past (arguably reckless) spending
habits. Indeed, same store retail sales (excluding Wal-Mart) decreased
about 1% from September to October compared with the 5-year average
increase of 1% (a small, but meaningful divergence). Nevertheless, the
holidays are upon us, and old habits tend to die hard (especially when the
recession technically has ended).