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| 文件名: 20111114_UBS_CEEMEA_corp_outlook_p225.pdf | |
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UBS Investment Research: CEEMEA Corporate Credit Outlook 2012
Date: 14 November 2011 Language: English Format: PDF Pages: 225 Table of Contents Introduction 5 Bonds and CDS recommendations 19 Macroeconomic update 47 Sovereign Credit outlook 65 Issuers: Financials 79 Issuers: Corporates 147 Covenants 197 Appendices 209 Slower growth, but still attractive Overall, the positive trend for CEEMEA Corporate Credit issuers is unmistakeable. While we recognise and even downgrade many of our forecasts for 2012-13, the fundamentals are still healthy, especially when compared to western counterparts. The macro economic view has deteriorated, with UBS downgrading developed world growth figures and even calling for a European recession. Euro zone downgrades have triggered Emerging EMEA growth downgrades as well. This slowdown is manageable for CEEMEA Corporates and we have adjusted downwards our issuer forecast models for 2012-13. But we still believe that, overall, fundamentals within the asset class remain healthy. We do make a distinction between CIS and MENA, especially when it comes to refinancing issues in 2012, where MENA, specifically UAE names, will have large maturities next year. Today’s valuations of CEEMEA suggest attractive levels, but again make the distinction of staying closer to better quality, and importantly, more liquid names. There is an argument that spreads may tighten, but more of an argument of holding this asset class versus others, for carry. We remain constructive on the asset class, but openly cautious given the headwinds of Europe and the US, and expected elevated volatility. |
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