UBS’s base case scenario 3
— 2009.....................................................................................................................3
— 2010.....................................................................................................................3
— 2011E ..................................................................................................................3
— 2012E ..................................................................................................................4
— 2013E ..................................................................................................................4
— Upside risks .........................................................................................................6
— Downside risks.....................................................................................................7
Japan economic theme review:
Is the aging society causing demand to weaken? 8
Japan watch: real GDP back to the pre-earthquake level 15
Global watch: more Euro fear 18
Macro charts 20
— 1. Exports, output, and inventories .....................................................................20
— 2. Employment ...................................................................................................25
— 3. Corporate earnings ........................................................................................26
— 4. Prices.............................................................................................................27
— 5. Overseas, FX .................................................................................................30
— 6. The Bank of Japan .........................................................................................36
— 7. Fiscal policy ...................................................................................................38
— 8. The IS balance...............................................................................................45
— 9. Current balance..............................................................................................56
— 10. Potential growth ...........................................................................................60
Japan economic comments (30 September – 14 November) 63
UBS economic forecasts 108



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