美国经济速评。下面这个评论，与我的设想非常接近，就直接引用了。图是我自己跟踪美国就业一个常用的图形，我们一般用3个月或者6个月平滑后的新增就业数据同比来观察美国新增就业的能力。应该说，这个能力从2019年后就是负增长。

U.S. REACT: Jobs Report Sets ‘Bear Trap’ for Recessionistas

By?Carl Riccadonna (Economist),?Yelena Shulyatyeva (Economist)?and?Eliza Winger (Associate)

(Bloomberg Economics) –?

OUR TAKE: Despite downdrafts from the?GM strike?and layoffs related to 2020 census workers, the labor market exhibited impressive resilience in October.

Hiring in the private-service sector — the category most immune from the two aforementioned idiosyncratic factors — actually outperformed relative to its year-to-date average (157k vs. 137k).

The labor data continue to corroborate a moderation in the pace of economic activity in the latter half of the year, but the resilience in the pace of hiring signals that growth is cooling, not collapsing.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 128k in October, topping the consensus estimate of 85k, as knock-on effects from the GM strike were smaller than in past episodes.

The unemployment rate edged a tenth higher to 3.6%, but the pace of hiring suggests that it is due to move lower in the months ahead.

Labor-force participation appears to be responding favorably to firming wage pressures, rising to 63.3% — the highest reading since 2013.

Factory Recession, But No Economy-Wide Recession

The factory sector may be in a downturn, but the broader econo