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[财经时事] [转帖]英金融时报社评:中国须走好汇率钢丝绳 [分享]

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老鱼父 发表于 2008-12-8 10:46:00 |显示全部楼层

英国《金融时报》社评 中国须走好汇率钢丝绳 2008-12-08

想像一下美国财长汉克·保尔森(Hank Paulson)听中国官员上“经济稳定”课的情形,只有心如磐石的人才不会发笑。中国央行行长周小川把当前危机归咎于美国的过度消费,而中方最高官员王岐山敦促保尔森保障中国在美投资的安全。在香港的另一个场合,中国主权财富基金的董事长指出,与保尔森相比,许多发展中国家拥有更清晰和更连贯的经济政策。哎哟!

然而,仅仅因为保尔森近几个月不顺利,并不意味着中国就在正轨上。周小川敦促美国提高储蓄率减少消费是错得离谱了。美国消费者正在全线撤退;若这种撤退变成溃败,中国的工厂将是首当其冲,第一批遭殃的受害者。这里不妨套用圣奥古斯丁(Saint Augustine)的祈祷词:“给我们全球平衡调整——但现在不是时候。”

如果说美国消费过度,那么中国的问题恰好相反。中国的储蓄率接近国民生产总值60%,而中国的中心政策就是生产廉价产品,同时借助信贷把这些产品销售到美国。这种格局不可能一直持续下去。中国公民理应在更大程度上享受自己的劳动成果,这意味着提高消费,减少储蓄。以基本建设为主体的中国财政刺激方案,不太可能起到帮助作用。中国应当向本国公民发放现金,并在医疗、教育和社保领域增加支出。中国公民之所以储蓄,是因为他们担心没有人会在糟糕的时期照顾自己,而糟糕的时期正在到来。

鼓励国内消费的捷径之一,是中国让人民币升值。截止今年夏天,中国一直在审慎地这么做。这种升值现已停止,上周人民币兑美元汇率还出现了最大单日跌幅。对此,没有人应当感到意外:中国在10月份就警告,可能出现这种政策变化的换牌。但是,有如此庞大盈余的国家采取竞争性贬值手段,肯定是不对的。就目前而言,中国的主要辩护依据是,人民币相对于贸易加权的一篮子货币仍在升值。但如果美元下跌,人民币绝不应该比美元跌得更快。

中国必须走好钢丝绳。出口减速太剧烈,有可能引发国内不稳定,但另一方面中国也不能让美元崩盘。

让我们希望中国领导人像杂技演员一样身手不凡。世界承受不起一场中国特色的贸易战争。

It would have taken a heart of stone not to smile at the spectacle of Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary, receiving a lecture on economic stabilisation from Chinese officials. Zhou Xioachuan, governor of the Chinese central bank, blamed US over-consumption for the crisis, while Wang Qishan, the leader of the Chinese delegation, urged Mr Paulson to guarantee the safety of Chinese investments in the US. At a separate event in Hong Kong, the chairman of China's sovereign wealth fund pointed out that many developing countries had clearer and more consistent economy policies than Mr Paulson did. Ouch.

Yet just because Mr Paulson has stumbled badly in recent months does not mean that China is on the right track. Zhou Xioachuan is wrong to urge a higher savings rate in the US. The US consumer is in full retreat; were the retreat to become a rout, China's factories would be among the first to be ruined. To commandeer Saint Augustine's prayer: “Give us global rebalancing – but not yet.”

If the US has overconsumed, China suffers from the opposite malaise. The savings rate is close to 60 per cent of gross domestic product, and Chinese policy has centred on producing cheap products to sell to the US on credit. This cannot continue forever. China's citizens deserve to enjoy more of the fruits of their labour, which means spending more and saving less. China's concrete-pouring fiscal stimulus is unlikely to help. It should be handing cash to its own citizens and spending more on health, education and social security. China's citizens save because they fear nobody will look after them in bad times – and bad times are coming.

A quick way to encourage domestic spending would be for China to allow the renminbi to appreciate. Until this summer, China had been doing that carefully. The appreciation has now stopped and last week the renminbi experienced its largest one-day fall against the dollar. Nobody should be surprised: China warned in October that this change in policy was on the cards. But it cannot be right for a country with such a huge surplus to resort to competitive devaluation. China's main defence, for now, is that the renminbi is still appreciating against a trade-weighted basket of currencies. But if the dollar falls, the renminbi must not try to overtake it on the way down.

China must walk a tightrope. Too sharp an export slowdown risks domestic unrest, and neither can it allow a dollar collapse. Let us hope that China's leaders are acrobatic. The world cannot afford a trade war with Chinese characteristics.

 

[此贴子已经被作者于2008-12-8 10:55:28编辑过]

关键词:金融时报 时报社 钢丝绳 Appreciation devaluation 中国 金融 汇率 钢丝绳 时报社

沧浪之水清兮可以濯我缨,沧浪之水浊兮可以濯我足。
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猫爪 发表于 2008-12-8 18:42:00 |显示全部楼层

让我们希望中国领导人像杂技演员一样身手不凡。世界承受不起一场中国特色的贸易战争。

——这话说的挺有意思。


请记住,猫科动物只有四个指头,所以没有中指~~~~~
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zhuli 发表于 2008-12-8 21:24:00 |显示全部楼层

杀杀美国人的傲气是有必要的!

亦余心之所善兮,虽九死其犹未悔。路漫漫其修远兮,吾将上下而求索。
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