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国五条带来的购房热潮似乎已经消退。根据13家大型房产商所公布的报告来看，4月销售额环比下降21%。其中恒大和绿城表现尚可，而华润置地则表现欠佳，环比下降高达34%。由于一线城市表现不佳（从之前的30%的年增长率下滑到-1.3%），五月的第一周和前一周相比，房屋销量整体下滑高达33%。而这诡归咎于去年末为冲业绩推出大量房源后导致目前代售房屋数量的不足，住房限购政策和登记手续放缓。

不过从开发商的数据中，很难得到关于成交价格的走向趋势。受“价格指导意见”影响，万科、恒大和碧桂园4月成交价环比下降2%-6%。而同时泰富及世茂依旧取得了8%-10%的环比增幅。根据搜房网的数据，百城房价指数自去年6月起，已保持连续11个月的环比上涨，今年4月环比仍上涨1%。一线城市中，北京的环比涨幅最高，为3.1%。广州和深圳紧随其后，分别达到了2.41%和1.94%，上海则基本趋于稳定。和去年同期相比，一线城市的销售额增幅在10%至16%不等。对于价格趋势的一个合理解释为，ZF对于市场价格的调控力度要低于此前的市场预期。

随着时间的推移和投机资本在房地产市场的退出，我们有望见到房地产价格逐渐趋于理性。外管局新出台的严禁异动资金流入的措施对房地产市场短期的稳定有重要作用。长期来看，昨日宣布的利率市场化改革和对银行系统的监管都提高了房地产市场的投机成本。相比单纯的房地产限购来说，这些因素对市场有着更好的稳定作用。

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The mad rush to buy new property ahead of new regulations seems to have ended for now。 The long lines seen around the country to register new property may soon shorten as the 13 large developers that have reported contracted sales for April are down an average of 21% from March。 R&F and Greentown outperformed and CRL underperformed falling 34% from March。 Primary sales for the week ending May 5th were down 33% from the prior week。 This was mainly driven by poor performance in the first tier cities which went from 30% Year over Year growth to 1。3% YoY decline。 This is driven by fewer sellable unites after the YTD transaction rush， HPR implementation and slower registration process。

There was no clear trend in average selling price from the developers with Vanke， R&F and Country Garden’s down 2%-6% from March mainly due to the “price-guidance”， while Shimao and KWG was up 8%-10% from March。 According to Soufun， home prices in 100-key cities posted a sequential MoM growth for the 11th month since June-2012， with price up 1。0% M/M。 Home prices in top-tier cities remain the strongest with Beijing up 3。1% M/M， followed by Guangzhou (+2。41%) and Shenzhen (+1。94%)。 Price in Shanghai has stabilized with a flat M/M price。 On a Y/Y basis， sales in top-tier cities rose by 10% to 16% Y/Y。 A likely explanation of the price trend is that details on the implementation of price restriction policies was less stringent that previously feared which strengthened market sentiment。

We continue to be hopeful of seeing some moderation in home price appreciation as speculative capital in the property market declines over time。 News flow today on SAFE’s new measures to restrict hot money inflows is clearly very encouraging in the near term。 In the longer term， we see interest rate reforms announced yesterday and restrictions in the banking sector to be solutions to increase the cost of speculative real estate capital。 Such factors will have a significantly stronger ability to stabilize the property market than outright restrictions。

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