汇丰银行：南美宏观经济研究报告2009年7月-经管之家官网！

Summary
The first half of 2009 was just as bad for Latin America as it was for most
emerging and developed economies in the world. The collapse of world trade
caused most of the damage, but diminishing capital flows, falling remittances,
and deteriorating expectations finished off any hopes for the region to avoid
major contagion damage. Nevertheless, second-half prospects appear good
for some of the more-resilient economies, especially Brazil, Chile, Peru,
Uruguay, and Colombia. On the other hand, we anticipate that Venezuela,
Ecuador, and Argentina will continue to have a hard time dealing with a
return to a quick recovery. On the positive side, inflation is registering a solid
downward trend and is no longer a problem for most countries.
Up the down staircase
We expect that Brazil and Mexico will both have equal BBB sovereign ratings by year-end. In general, we see a world
movement by rating agencies toward narrowing gaps both at intra-regional and inter-regional levels. In particular, we
believe that Mexico could be downgraded by one notch to BBB from BBB+ as result of the country’s structural fiscal
weakness and its political inability to pass reforms. Brazil could receive a one-notch upgrade to BBB from BBB-, in
our view, as a result of its proven resilience to the world financial crisis and its better general performance.
In Brazil, industrial production contracted significantly, as it did in virtually all of Latin America in response to the
collapse of world trade, but it has started to bounce back, and recovery seems in the making. But most important, the
rest of Brazil’s economy is holding up well, and consumption should not register in negative territory. Its fiscal
accounts are holding up well in relative terms, and as a result, we do not expect much deterioration in unemployment.
Brazil’s balance of payments also looks good, as the contraction in its capital account surplus should be matched by a
similar decline in its current account deficit; therefore, we expect foreign exchange reserves to remain stable. As a
result, we believe that the country is in good shape to post only a mild contraction of 0.3% in GDP for 2009 and then
an average annual growth above 4.0% for 2010-12.
Mexico, on the other hand, should see the most severe GDP decline, which we estimate at 5.9%, in all of Latin
America in 2009, albeit still with a serious downside risk. Not only has Mexico’s industrial production declined
sharply as non-oil exports have contracted severely, but the services sector also has gone through a significant
retrenchment. Worse still, the recovery that we expect in 2010 is mostly a base effect, and potential growth for 2010-
12 should remain relatively low. While we do not expect Mexico’s external accounts to show any major problems, its
fiscal accounts are structurally weak. Its overdependence on oil revenues is finally coming back to haunt the
government, as oil production keeps falling. And the results of Mexico’s midterm elections point toward further
difficulty in terms of solving any of the country’s major problems.