2009年10月全球宏观经济研究报告-经管之家官网！

【出版时间及名称】：2009年10月全球宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：法国兴业银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：27
【目录或简介】：
Global Economic Monitor
Only nuances from the Fed but action from the RBA
Fed rate speculation is premature
GDP growth and a Wall Street Journal article published on October 24th have led to speculation that the Fed could significantly change its
language at this week’s FOMC meeting. An actual change in rates any time soon is not a serious scenario. The message in the FOMC
announcements has been evolving gradually and should do so again this week.
Fed Rate Outlook: Fed funds target to be left in 0 to 1/4% range and no change in time frame. Fed to indicate exceptionally low rate for
extended period of time. This item should be the chief interest to the market this week, and markets should be relieved by this message.
Low rates also ensure the liquidity that markets are feeding off of at present.
Asset Purchases: The Fed completed its $300 bln Treasury purchase program in the final week of October. The termination was well
communicated and had minimal disruption for the markets. The Fed should replicate the communication with its Agency purchase
program and is already following this route. In September, the Fed announced a more gradual termination of the agency debt purchase
program.
Economic Assessment: Significant changes are expected in this section. The Fed should acknowledge the more positive growth
environment. Financial Assessment: Conditions have continued to improve but the gains in key markets have been modest and credit
availability remains restrained.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will stay at the forefront of
the global tightening surge, this week raising the target cash
rate another 25bps to 3.50%. The market continues to underprice
the likely peak in rates.
The Australian NAB Business Confidence index rose to +16 points in
Q3 from Q2’s -4, the highest level in 7 years. Historically, the NAB
survey is a good leading indicator for employment, investment,
currency and interest rates. The NAB Business confidence survey
has been a useful leading indicator of monetary policy changes.
Looking at the 6m lagged difference y/y in the RBA cash rate and
the NAB business confidence index is consistent with a further 100-
125bp scope for tightening during the next 6 months.