经济学人：不要这样离开我们（苏格兰为什么应该留在英国）-经管之家官网！

Don’t leave us this way
不要这样离开我们
Why we hope the people of Scotland will vote to stay in the union
为什么我们希望苏格兰人民投票留在英国
Jul 12th 2014 | From the print edition
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1 BRITAIN does not feel like a nation on the verge of cracking up. Many have clutched patriotic flags and wept this summer—but most of them were fans of the England football team, distressed by its rapid exit from the World Cup, not activists demonstrating for and against the break-up of their country. Yet a 307-year-old union, which once ruled a third of humanity and still serves as a role-model to many, could be on the verge of dissolution, because the people of Scotland will vote on independence in a referendum on September 18th.
英国不像是处在解体边缘的国家，今年夏天许多人高举着、挥舞着英国国旗。不过他们中大多数是惋惜英格兰足球队在世界杯出师不利的球迷，而非就苏格兰独立表明立场的激进分子。然而有着307年历史、曾经统治世界1/3人口、至今仍是许多国家榜样的英国可能处于分裂边缘，因为苏格兰人民将于9月18日就独立问题进行全民公投。
2 Opinion polls suggest the Scots will decide against leaving, but it is the nationalists who have fire in their bellies, and Alex Salmond, the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), is a strong finisher (see article). Even a narrow victory for the status quo would be the biggest blow to the United Kingdom since 1922, when the Irish Free State was born. The campaign has been a bad-tempered one, marked by growing Scottish anger at English complacency and indifference while English resentment of Scottish whingeing and freeloading has risen: only a strong vote for the union will bury this issue.
民调显示苏格兰将反对独立。不满现状、怒火中烧的是民族主义者及苏格兰民主党（SNP）领袖亚历克斯.萨蒙德（Alex Salmond），萨蒙德是强硬的分裂派（另见文）。即使在公投中保持现状的票数以微弱优势取胜，那也将是自1922年爱尔兰自由邦诞生以来大英帝国遭受的最大打击。公投运动弥漫着负面情绪：苏格兰对英格兰的骄傲自满和漠不关心怒气满满，英格兰对苏格兰的抱怨不断和不劳而获恨意日增——只有支持联合获得压倒性胜利才能平息这一问题。
3 If the Scots vote to leave, they should of course be allowed to, with Britain’s blessing. A desire for self-determination is a strong basis for a claim to nationhood, and there is no reason to think that an independent Scotland would be a disaster, any more than an independent Ireland has been.
如果苏格兰民众选择独立，那么英国当然应该允许并祝福他们这样做。对自主权的渴望是建立独立国家的坚实基础，我们没有理由认为独立的苏格兰会比独立的爱尔兰带来的危害更大。
4 But The Economist, itself a product of the Caledonian liberalism of Adam Smith and David Hume, hopes the Scots will decide to stay. That is partly because we believe that a break-up would benefit nobody: on most measures the certain costs for people on both sides of the border far outweigh the uncertain gains. But it is also because much would be lost. Despite the occasional appearance of muddle, there is a point to the union, and one about which liberals should feel passionate.
《经济学人》本身是亚当.斯密（Adam Smith）和大卫.休谟（David Hume）加里东期自由主义的产物，本报希望苏格兰能决定留下。部分原因是我们认为没人能从解体中获益：以大多数标准衡量，边界两边的人民必须付出的代价远远超过了尚不确定的收益。另一原因是支持独立的损失将很惨重。尽管联邦时有乱象，但还是有存在的理由的，自由派应该会对这一理由充满热情。
Red, white and rather blue
红色、白色，蓝色，尤其是蓝色
5 Strong arguments are needed to justify a step as big as breaking up a nation. Scottish nationalists argue that an independent Scotland would be more prosperous and more democratic.
对于分裂国家这样的重大举措，需要有充分的理由以证明其正当性。苏格兰民族主义者宣称独立的英格兰会更繁荣、更民主。
6 On economics, the nationalists say that Scots will be ￡1,000 a year better-off per head if they go it alone. That number, however, is based on implausible assumptions about the oil price, Scotland’s debt burden, demography and productivity. The British government’s estimate that Scots would be ￡1,400 a year better off per head if they stay in is based on more realistic assumptions. Scotland’s population is older and sicker than the British average, and productivity 11% lower than that of the rest of Britain. As a result, the state spends around ￡1,200 more per head on Scots than on the average Briton. Depending on what happens to the oil price, North Sea oil could more or less cover those costs in the short term, but the oil is running out.
在经济方面，民族主义者认为苏格兰独立后人均年收入将增加1000英镑，但是这个数字是基于对油价、苏格兰的债务、人口及生产力的错误估计得出的。英国ZF估计如果选择留下，苏格兰人均年收入会比支持独立多出1400英镑，这个结论是基于更现实的假设得出的。苏格兰人口相比英国平均更年老、更虚弱，生产力比英国其他地区低了11%，因此国家在苏格兰人均上的投入比英国人均多了1200英镑。尽管油价波动，但北海石油多多少少将在短期内填补上述差额，不过石油正在逐渐枯竭。
7 It is, of course, possible that independence would cure Scotland’s entitlement culture and revive its entrepreneurial side. If either of its two dominant parties—the SNP and Labour—were disciples of Adam Smith that would be plausible. But their statist philosophies are more likely to drive Edinburgh’s fund managers, Aberdeen’s oil-services engineers and other talented Scots south. Independence would also impose one-off costs: a new Scottish state would have to set up an army, a welfare system, a currency and much else (see article).
当然，独立可能能够治愈苏格兰的权利文化，复兴企业活力。如果两个主要党派——苏格兰民族党和工党——都是亚当.斯密的追随者，那就似乎是可能的。但两党的集权哲学更可能使爱丁堡的基金经理、阿伯丁的石油服务工程师以及其他苏格兰人才遭受重创。独立还会带来一次性支出：新的苏格兰国家必须建立军队、福利系统、货币系统，以及众多诸如此类的事情（另见文）。
You stole my soul and that’s a pain I can do without
你偷走了我的灵魂，我本不必遭受这种痛苦
8 The argument that an independent Scotland would be more democratic is a stronger one, for Scotland and England have grown apart. Two generations ago, there were nearly as many Conservative MPs as Labour ones in Scotland, but the Scots have not forgiven the Tories for the impact of Thatcherism on their heavily industrial economy. Nationalist protesters recently donned panda outfits to remind David Cameron, the Conservative prime minister, that there are more pandas in Edinburgh zoo (two) than there are Tory MPs in Scotland (one). Encouraged by devolution under Tony Blair and cash from Westminster, Scottish social policies have diverged from English ones. University education is free for Scottish students, but not English or Welsh ones; the state pays for a higher proportion of old people’s care in Scotland than it does in England and Wales; Scotland has not followed England in freeing schools from bureaucratic constraints.
认为独立的苏格兰将会更加民主的观点更有说服力，因为苏格兰和英格兰已经渐行渐远了。60年前，苏格兰的保守党议员和工党议员人数相当，但是苏格兰仍然记恨托利党，因为撒切尔主义重创了苏格兰的重工业经济。民族主义抗议者最近穿上了熊猫服，以提醒保守党首相卡梅伦爱丁堡动物园的熊猫（2只）都比苏格兰的托利党议员（1个）多。受托尼.布莱尔的分权政策及来自威斯敏斯特的资金驱动，苏格兰的社会政策和英格兰的分道扬镳了。苏格兰学生上大学免费，英格兰和威尔士学生则不然；国家在苏格兰的老年人福利支出多于在英格兰和威尔士的；英格兰将学校从官僚束缚中解放了出来，苏格兰没有效仿。
9 Yet healthy democracies are flexible enough to deal with regional differences, of which there are plenty within the rest of Britain. The north-east of England and Wales, which both vote Labour, also rail against the Westminster government, just as the Tory stockbroker belt does when Labour is in power. Some of the southern impositions that nationalists object to, such as a “bedroom tax” designed to nudge subsidised tenants out of unnecessarily large houses, are relatively trivial. Others, like Margaret Thatcher’s poll tax, are historical.
但是健全的民主国家很灵活，足以解决地区分歧——其中很多分歧发生在英国其他地区。支持工党的英国东北部和威尔士也批评ZF，就像工党当权时期的托利党富人区批评当时的ZF一样。民族主义者反对的部分南部税收相对琐碎，比如“卧室税”（迫使受补贴的租客搬出奢华的大房子）。而其他税收则是历史性的，比如撒切尔的人头税。
10 Nor does Britain’s political set-up deprive the Scots of power. The last two British prime ministers, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, were born north of the border. Scotland has a disproportionately large number of MPs at Westminster. Edinburgh already has an independent legal system and its parliament has power over a wide range of policy areas, including health, education and housing. Its leaders have not exercised their right to vary income tax: that hardly suggests a Scottish administration straining at a leash held tight by Westminster.
英国政治体制也没有剥夺苏格兰的政治权利。上两任英国首相托尼.布莱尔和戈登.布朗都生于苏格兰。议会的苏格兰议员特别多，爱丁堡已有独立的法律制度，国会在很多政治领域有自主权，包括医疗、教育和住房方面。苏格兰领导人没有使用权利另立收入税法：此事难以说明苏格兰ZF受制于英国当局，渴望挣脱束缚。
11 A democratic, peaceful, well-governed nation state is a blessing which should not be casually thrown away. That is a strong negative case against change. But there is also a positive argument, to which the campaign against Scottish independence has struggled to give voice: the idea of union.
民主和平、治理良好的民族国家是种福气，不应该被随随便便丢弃。这是反对改变的有力反面论据。但也有正面论据，并且是反对苏格兰独立的团体一直在竭力表达的一个论据：联合的理念。
12 The United Kingdom embodies the belief that people with distinct histories and identities can live together, and that their diversity makes their culture, their economy and their polity stronger. Tellingly, most members of ethnic minorities describe themselves as British rather than English or Scottish; they instinctively recognise the capacious, liberal identity—one which rests not on narrow nationalism, but on an enlightened concept of nationhood—that the union offers. In a world plagued by ethnic hatred, cultural prejudice and religious violence, that venerable idea should count for more than the real but fleeting disappointments and sense of alienation that the Scots have experienced in recent decades.
英国象征着一种信仰，即有着不同历史和身份的人能够生活在一起，并且正是这种多样性使他们的文化、经济和政体更加强大。有力的证据是，大多数少数民族人民都会把自己称为英国人，而非英格兰人或苏格兰人。他们本能地认可联合带来的包容、自由的身份——这不是基于狭隘的民族主义，而是基于开明的国家概念。在充斥着种族仇恨、文化偏见和宗教暴力的世界，相比苏格兰近几十年遭受的真切但短暂的失落感和隔离感，崇高的联合理念更为意义深远。