德银马骏：中国2011第一季度GDP数据分析-经管之家官网！

Q1 GDP came in at 9.7% yoy, slightly higher than
our and market expectations of 9.5/9.4%. This mainly reflects
stronger-than-expected manufacturing activities (IP grew 14.8% yoy in March vs
market expectations of 14%).On a qoq (saar) basis, Q1 GDP grew 8.7% as
reported by the Statistics Bureau for the first time (it peaked at around 15% in
Q2 of 2009 according to our estimate). In our view, the current qoq GDP growth
rate is the most desired pace of economic expansion, which will help reduce
inflationary pressure (i.e., avoid overheating) but also keep the economy far
away from a hard landing scenario (we define hard landing by two consecutive
quarters of sub-7% growth).This moderation of qoq GDP growth, together
with the likely decline in yoy inflation from the middle of this year, should
reduce the pressure for monetary tightening a few months later.
CPI rose 5.4% yoy in March,
marginally above the consensus forecast of 5.2%.The main difference
between the actual and our expectation is the smaller-than-expected mom drop in
the food index in CPI for March. As the daily agriculture price index has
declined by 8% (from 197 to 181) since the beginning of February, it is just a
matter of time that the food index in CPI will have to decline substantially.
The higher-than-expected food CPI index in March suggests that a larger part of
food price decline is likely to be reflected in April. On overall CPI outlook,
nothing fundamental has changed over the past few weeks: we remain confident
that yoy CPI will peak in the middle of this year at close to 5.8%, and will
decline to slightly below 4% in December.The recent modest hikes of oil
prices are already in our CPI model, and its impact on overall CPI is much
smaller than that of food prices.
Retail sales, growing 17.4% yoy in
March, present a positive surprise compared with the consensus estimate of
16.5%. The key reason is probably the better-than-expected consumption of
property-related products incl. furniture, household electronics and decoration
materials.
Other indicators released
today, including FAI (at 25% yoy for Q1) and PPI (at 7.3% yoy in March), are
broadly in line with forecasts。