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20101115-野村太阳能行业分析

20101115-野村太阳能行业分析

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Investmentsummary3Downtochoosingtherightcompanies8Marginpressuretobecomeacutein2011F9Verticallyintegratedplayertooutperformpure-playmakers9Balancesheetstoremaininfocus10Valuationmethodology11Oversuppl ...
数据分析师
Investment summary 3
Down to choosing the right companies 8
Margin pressure to become acute in 2011F 9
Vertically integrated player to outperform pure-play makers 9
Balance sheets to remain in focus 10
Valuation methodology 11
Oversupply across segments in 2011 13
Polysilicon makers – market to remain in oversupply in 2011F-13F 13
Easing the bottleneck of wafer supply in 2011 15
Perpetual oversupply in cell manufacturing? 15
Demand growth to slow over 2011-13F 16
Demand growth ahead a function of policy changes 16
European demand growth to slow as risks increase 18
US – the next key market ahead 19
Market share consolidation ahead? 22
ASP pressure to increase 22
Module ASPs of US$1.4-1.5/W in 2011F enable equivalent IRRs 23
Vertically integrated companies have better cost structure 23
Pure-play companies likely to suffer the most 24
Fundamental shift in competition ahead 26
Entry of well-funded leaders from technology industry 26
Thin-film looks set to make a comeback 27
Project financing — setting up the complete plant 28
Utility adoption — the next lever of growth 29
More countries to offer subsidies to solar as costs reduce 30
Analysing the global addressable market for renewables 31
Solar to account for at least 50% of the renewable TAM 31
Latest company views
Trina Solar 33
Yingli Green Energy 38
Suntech Power 43
Canadian Solar 48
JA Solar 53
Motech Industries 58
E-Ton Solar Tech 63
LDK Solar 68
GCL Poly Energy 73
Solargiga Energy 79
Solarfun 84
DelSolar 87
Gintech 90
Comtec 93
Apollo Solar 96
Trony Solar 99
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