报告名称：Tencent Holdings(00700.HK)4Q15 Preview： Mobile games and ads to drive 4Q revenue
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-03-16
研究机构：高盛集团
股票名称：腾讯控股
股票代码：00700
页数：7
简介：What we expect
Tencent will report 2015 results on March 17 after market close. Weforecast 4Q15 revenues of Rmb27.8bn (+33% yoy vs. +34% in 3Q) and non-GAAP EPS of Rmb0.84 (+17% yoy). We are +0.1% and -1.2% vs.Bloomberg consensus on 2015 revenue and non-GAAP EPS, respectively.
What could surprise us
Gaming: We remain focused on continued growth in mobile games fromhigher retention, monetization from the launch of new mobile games andleveraging of proven PC games IP on mobiles. Further, we expect stabilityin PC games revenue from rising ARPU. We forecast online gamesrevenue growth of 22% yoy (PC Rmb10.8bn, +12% yoy, and smart phonegross revenue Rmb5.7bn, +51% yoy). Notable new games launched in4Q15 include Monster Hunter Online (PC) and CF Mobile. Game datapoints from App Annie: Tencent operated 6 of China’s top 10 grossing iOSgames in 4Q15, with leading titles including MIR, WeFire & Thunder Raid.
Advertising: We expect strong momentum in advertising revenue tocontinue on brand advertising growth of 80% yoy to Rmb2.7bn and P4Pgrowth of 206% to Rmb3.5bn. We believe WeChat Moments advertisingwill continue to gain traction as Tencent lowered the budget thresholdfurther to Rmb50k (from Rmb200k in 3Q15) and increased the maximumad load to 1 ad every 24 hours (from 48 hours).
Margins: We forecast revenue growth from gaming and advertising willbe offset by higher costs, resulting in slightly lower non-GAAP op. margins(-0.7pp yoy to 37.7%). We model higher content spend due to the NBAcontent cost. On the payment side, Tencent has changed its policy tocharge for money withdrawal on WeChat Wallet to offset the banking costof over Rmb300mn/month, as disclosed by the CEO.
Other developments: Tencent reported 650mn WeChat MAU, 600kWeChat enterprise accounts and 10mn users of these accounts, with aDAU of 2mn and 12mn daily messages, as of Nov 2015. Tencent willlaunch the enterprise version of WeChat in the next 1-2 months to create avirtual low cost mobile office supporting Android, iOS, Windows and Mac.

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