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分享东亚奇迹的反思: accumulation 2015-5-7 11:29; 1 The East Asian Miracle at the Millennium 2 Growth, Crisis, and the Future of Economic Recovery in East Asia 3 Technological Change and Growth in East Asia:Macro versus Micro Perspectives 4 Chinese Rural Industrialization in the Context of the East Asian Miracle 5 After the Crisis, the East Asian Dollar Standard Resurrected:An Interpretation of High-Frequency Exchange Rate Pegging 6 Industrial and Financial Policy in China and Vietnam:A New Model or a Replay of the East Asian Experience? 7 Government Control in Corporate Governance as a Transitional Institution: Lessons from China 8 The Government-Firm Relationship in Postwar Japan:The Success and Failure of Bureau Pluralism 9 Miracle as Prologue: The State and the Reform of the Corporate Sector in Korea 10 Trade and Growth: Import-Led or Export-Led? Evidence from Japan and Korea 11 Emergence of an FDI-Trade Nexus and Economic Growth in East Asia 12 Rethinking the Role of Government Policy in Southeast Asia 13 From Miracle to Crisis to Recovery:Lessons from Four Decades of East Asian Experience; 个人分类: 中国经济专题|0 个评论

分享 Introductory Econometrics for Finance: accumulation 2015-3-11 00:56; 2 A brief overview of the classical linear regression model 27 2.1 What is a regression model? 27 2.2 Regression versus correlation 28 2.3 Simple regression 28 2.4 Some further terminology 37 2.5 Simple linear regression in EViews -- estimation of an optimal hedge ratio 40 2.6 The assumptions underlying the classical linear regression model 43 2.7 Properties of the OLS estimator 44 2.8 Precision and standard errors 46 2.9 An introduction to statistical inference 51; 个人分类: 金融学|0 个评论

分享 Guest Post: Bakken - Hype Versus Reality: insight 2013-9-24 16:03; Guest Post: Bakken - Hype Versus Reality Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/23/2013 19:03 -0400 Bank of England BOE Ford Guest Post headlines Reality lang: en_U in Share 0 Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform blog , As Wall Street, CNBC, and feckless politicians tout American energy independence from the miracle of shale oil, reality is already rearing its ugly head. Production grew by 24% over the first six months of 2012. Production has grown by only 7% over the first six months of 2013. That is a dramatic slowdown. The fact is that these wells deplete at an extremely rapid rate. Oil companies will always seek out the easiest to access oil first. They have already accessed the easy stuff. This explains thedramatic slowdown. Peak Bakken oil production will be below 1 million barrels per day. The last time I checked, we consumed 18 million barrels per day. I wonder when that energy independence will be achieved? Reality is a ****. Bakken Oil Production Growth Has Slowed Significantly In 2013 By: Devon Shire http://seekingalpha.com/author/devon-shire The headlines ring of “booming” American oil production and “gluts” of oil ( USO ). I’m here to tell you that while the boom is real, there is no glut of oil and we need to be aware that the huge production growth of the past eighteen months is going to slow. It already is slowing. I’ve been watching what is going on in the Bakken pretty closely because I think it is going to be an excellent proxy for what will happen across the country. Let’s take a look at what happened to production in North Dakota during the first six months of last year (2012). Here is the raw data detailing barrels of oil production per day: December 2011 – 535,000 boe/day January 2012 – 547,000 boe/day February 2012 – 559,000 boe/day March 2012 – 580,000 boe/day April 2012 – 611,000 boe/day May 2012 – 644,000 boe/day June 2012 – 664,000 boe/day Daily production in North Dakota increased by 129,000 barrels per day from December 2011 to June 2012. Now let’s look at the same period for this year (2013): December 2012 – 768,000 boe/day January 2013 – 739,000 boe/day February 2013 – 780,000 boe/day March 2013 – 785,000 boe/day April 2013 – 793,000 boe/day May 2013 – 811,000 boe/day June 2013 – 821,000 boe/day Where last year production increased by 129,000 barrels per day in the first six months of the year, this year production is up by only 53,000 barrels per day. Yes, the rate of growth in the Bakken has slowed considerably in 2013. To understand why, a person needs to look at the production profile for these horizontal oil wells. By the end of the first year of production, a new well is producing at a rate that is 30% of where it was the year before. That means a huge amount of drilling each year has to be done just to offset the production lost due to these steep decline rates. Without a continuous step change each year in the number of wells being drilled and the capital available to do so, production in the Bakken is going to flatten. Good things are still happening, but we can’t repeat every year the hyperbolic growth that we saw in 2012. What this means for investors is that we shouldn’t expect oil prices to fall much from where we have seen them over the past three years. For the past three years WTI oil prices have ranged from $85 per barrel to $105 per barrel. I think $85 is about as low as we can go for an extended period of time because that is likely just about the marginal cost of production for oil in the world today. Production growth in the Bakken is slowing and so too will production growth in the Eagle Ford. That is the nature of these horizontal oil fields. We get an initial surge in production as capital comes into the play. Then that growth rate slows steadily until it flattens and enters a decline. 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