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分享 Growth Economics
accumulation 2015-4-28 23:10
Based on the argument of growth accounting and other determinants, how would you anticipate the potential room for the future growth of China under the new normal steady state? China’s prospect for moderate growth are quite good given the track record of total factor productivity (TFP) growth over the last 20 years. A country’s growth potential is determined in large part by its ability to efficiently combine the factors of production with the highest productivity possible. Economic advancement based on superficial determinants such as increasing the quantity of the factors of production (i.e. increasing the number of physical capital devices and simply increasing the number of years in school), is not sustainable, because it does not address the performance of these factors, the deeper driver of growth. While China’s TFP has consistently lagged behind many Western countries, the growth in China’s TFP has been significant and sustained since Reform and Opening, suggesting that as long as the government continues to invest in policies that increase factor productivity, such as supportive infrastructure for physical capital, quality of education, and other efficiency-increasing investments, reasonable growth is highly probable.
个人分类: 宏观经济学|0 个评论
分享 坚持做20件小事，你的人生大不同！
葛丛 2014-8-1 10:02
坚持做20件小事，你的人生大不同！ 1. Stay positive.You can listen to the cynics and doubters and believe that success is impossible or you can know that with faith and an optimistic attitude all things are possible. 保持积极乐观的心态。你可以选择听愤青和怀疑论者在那里叨念“成功是不可能的”，你也可以选择坚守信仰，保持乐观的心态，相信“万事皆有可能”。 2. When you wake up in the morning complete the following statement: My purpose is__. 每天早上起床的时候，就想想怎么填完整下面这句话：我的目标是__。 3. Take a morning walk of gratitude. It will create a fertile mind ready for success. 每天早晨进行一次“感恩散步”，这会滋养你的精神沃土，为成功做好准备。 4. Instead of being disappointed about where you are. Think optimistically about where you are going. 与其对你现在所处的位置感到失望，不如乐观地想想你前进的方向。 5. Eat. Eat breakfast like a king, lunch like a prince and dinner like a college kid with a maxed out charge card. 吃东西。早餐吃得像国王，午餐吃得像王子，晚餐吃得像用光了赊账卡限额的学生。 6. Remember that adversity is not a dead-end but a detour to a better outcome. 记住，逆境并不是尽头，而是更好的结果的一个转角而已。 7. Focus on learning, loving, growing and serving. 专注于学习、关爱、成长和服务。 8. Believe that everything happens for a reason. Expect good things to come out of challenging experiences. 你要相信凡事皆有因果。面对挑战才能有好事降临。 9. Don’t waste your precious energy on gossip, energy vampires, issues of the past, negative thoughts or things you cannot control. Instead invest your energy in the positive present moment. 别在流言蜚语上、过去的事情上、消极的想法上和你不能控制的事情上浪费你宝贵的精力。相反，积极的当下时刻才是你需要花精力的地方。 10. Mentor someone and be mentored by someone. 指导别人，同时也接受别人的指导。 11. Life isn't fair, but it's still good. 生活就是不公平的，但还过得下去。 12. Remember there’s no substitute for hard work. 什么也代替不了努力工作。 13. Each day when you wake up in the morning ask: "What are the three most important things I need to do today that will help me create the success I desire?"Then tune out all the distractions and focus on these actions. 每天早晨起来问问自己：“今天我要做哪三件可以助我成功的事情？”然后抛开杂念，全神贯注完成这些事情。 14. Complaining is like vomiting. Afterwards you feel better but everyone around you feels sick. 抱怨就跟呕吐一样。你自己是爽了，可你周围的人都得跟着遭殃。 15. Read more books than you did last year. 今年比去年多读点书。 16. Get more sleep. You can’t replace sleep with a double latte. 保证睡眠时间，一杯特浓拿铁替代不了一夜好眠。 17. Each day focus on what you get to do, not what you have to do. Life is a gift not an obligation. 每天关注在你想做什么，而不是你要做什么。生活是恩赐而不是义务。 18. Each night before you go to bed complete the following statements: I am thankful for __. Today I accomplished__. 每晚临睡前完成如下陈述：我对__充满感恩。今天我完成了__ 19. Smile and laugh more. They are natural anti-depressants. 微笑大笑，多多益善。这是天然的抗抑郁药。 20. Enjoy the ride. You only have one ride through life so make the most of it and enjoy it. 珍惜你的人生之旅。每个人只能有一次这样的人生旅行，尽你所能地享受珍惜你的人生吧。
542 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 As Russian troops stage drills nearby, Ukraine leader says peace is still possib
912726421 2014-3-14 15:44
(CNN) -- Moments after blasting what he called Russia's illegal "military aggression" of his nation, Ukraine's interim leader insisted Thursday that a peaceful resolution that ends with Kiev and Moscow becoming "real partners" is still possible. "We still believe that we have a chance to resolve these conflicts in a peaceful manner," interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk told the U.N. Security Council. Yatsenyuk's remarks come as thousands of Russian troops staged military exercises not far from his nation's border.
22 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 Bayesian statistics made (as) simple (as possible)
Siiiiiiiiir 2013-12-4 08:39
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bobeo5kFz1g enjoy
17 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 Reader Asks Me to Prove "Inflation Benefits the Wealthy" (At the Expen
insight 2013-10-12 21:10
In response to Top 1% Received 121% of Income Gains During the Recovery I received a couple of emails from readers that I would like to share. Reader "Gordon" wondered how it was possible for a group to get 121% of income gains. Here is the example I sent Gordon. Mary, Tom, and Joe work for the XYZ Corporation. They are the only three employees. Mary's salary rose from $100,000 to $200,000. Tom and Joe were informed of hardships in the corporation and their salaries fell from $100,000 to $80,000 each. In the above example, net salaries rose by $60,000. Mary's salary rose by $100,000 (more than 100% of the total). Quantifying Inequality Reader "Z" writes ... " Inequality in the US has been rising since the 80s. How do you justify your theory that inflation benefits the wealthy? Not qualitatively, quantitatively. " First, let's take a look at inflation as measured by the CPI (any alternative measure of inflation would suffice for this example). CPI Percent Change From Year Ago click on any chart for sharper image Except for a brief period in 2009, price inflation has been positive. The question is "Who Benefited?" I claim it is those with " first access to money " namely banks and the already wealthy. A few charts courtesy of Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives will prove my point. Nominal US Household Incomes From the above chart it appears the average and median households income has been growing nicely since 1967. If that's what you believe, think again. Real US Household Incomes In "real" (CPI-adjusted) terms, 50% of households are no better off than they were in 1988. Let's dig a litter deeper. Growth in Real Household Income by Quintile The above chart shows percentage income growth by quintile since 1967. Since 1988, the bottom, 4th and middle quintiles (a combined 60% of households) have negative real income growth. The next chart shows the same thing in a different way. Real Household Income by Quintile No matter what your timeframe, only the top quintile did well. And from 1980 until 2000 the top 5% got the lion's share of income gains. Ponder on that for a bit, then consider the following charts on total net worth. Nominal Total Net Worth Real Total Net Worth Total net worth includes stocks, bonds, real estate, pensions, etc. I cannot precise quantify quintiles but we all know (at least we should) who has the assets and who doesn't. The top 5 or 10% have most of the assets, the next 15% or so are OK and nearly everyone else is asset poor and high in debt. Millionaire Households The Wall Street Journal has some interesting stats on the Millionaire Population . According to the Chicago-based Spectrem group, there are now 8.6 million households in the U.S. with a total net worth (minus principal residence) of $1 million or more. There are now 1,078,000 households worth $5 million or more and about 107,000 people worth $25 million or more. The report also broke down today’s millionaires by occupation and former occupation if retired. Managers make up the largest group, with 17%, followed by educators (12%), corporate executives (7%), entrepreneur/business owners (6%) and attorneys and accounts. The $5 million-plus crowd, is dominated by senior corporate executives (17%) and entrepreneurs/owners (12%). Household Net Worth Chart from Spectrem Group There are about 114 million households. Of that number 8.6 million (7.5%) have a net worth of $1 million or more. 37 million households have a total net worth of $100,000 or more. Thus, 77 million households (67.5%) have a net worth less than $100,000. Counting underwater houses, I suspect most of them live paycheck to paycheck and have minimal if not negative net worth. So who did inflation benefit? The answer is those with assets and those with first access to money: the banks and the already wealthy. The poor do not have assets, they have debt. In spite of the often-heard mantra that "inflation wipes away debt", I suggest otherwise. Income typically does not keep up with expenses, and most have too few assets to inflate. The poor (last on the credit totem pole) overpay for their assets with cheap credit given to them at precisely the wrong times (as happened right before the housing bust). Inflation Clobbers Those on Fixed Income In case you missed it, please consider Hello Ben Bernanke, Meet "Stephanie" , my response to a reader on fixed income attempting to live on Social Security plus interest on a $16,000 CD. If routine price inflation did not benefit the banks and the wealthy at the expense of everyone else, we probably would not have it. The word that best describes the process is "theft". Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com "Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish Click on Image to Learn More Thanks to Mish from globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
个人分类: inequality|33 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 Compare And Contrast: Public Vs Private Retiree Underfunding In One Chart
insight 2013-8-17 20:57
Compare And Contrast: Public Vs Private Retiree Underfunding In One Chart Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/16/2013 12:05 -0400 The chart below explains, in the simplest possible terms, why there are many more "Detroits" on deck. It shows the underfunded status of public vs private retiree healthcare plans. It needs no commentary, although it may deserve one question: what happens when all those public servants who have been promised over a trillion in healthcare benefits upon retirement, realize it was all a lie? And then come... the pensions. Average: 4.875 Your rating: None Average: 4.9 ( 16 votes)
个人分类: inequality|36 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 possible babe
polarbull 2013-5-15 20:20
if you
15 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 Sentences about CFA
cyh 2013-1-19 07:43
1) Its not that tough that they make you believe. CFA is very do-able. 2) CFA is 80% hard work and 20% intelligence. 3) An average joe can clear the program provided that he/she does not give up hope. 4) CFA is difficult because you’ll have to give up on your social life for the three years that you’re doing it. 5) It is much more difficult to clear the exams while you are working 6) Thus, if possible take atleast 1 ( better 2) levels while you’re still in college 7) Clearing only 1 level or clearing only 2 levels does not carry any weight. You have to clear all three levels before you can make the exams work for you. 8) CFA alone will not calapult you to the $100,000 job 99% of the times. 9) It is expensive. Abt $2500 to be precise 10) It will cover all topics in finance, but it is more suitable for equity research type of roles 11) it is not a subsitute of FRM ( and vice versa) 12) You’re not going to seem attractive to chicks in a bar only because you hold a charter 13) People don’t get that much impresed that you’re a CFA unless they are CFA level 1 candidates 14) the feeling of passing level 1 is the great, level 2 is good and level 3 is just ok 15) The happiness of passing Level 1 lasts 1 week, level 2 lasts 2 days and level 3 lasts a few hours. 16) Schweser is the best 17) Study atleast 2 hours everyday 18) start Preparing atleast 4 months before the exam 19) refer to CFAI textbooks only when in need for level 1 and level 3 20) Use CFAI textbooks often in level 2 21) you’ll forget what you studied by the time you complete your course. 22) in View of 21, revise atleast thrice before the exam 23) you mock test scores in Schweser Pro are the best indicators of your expected score 24) Doing Schweser back of chapter problems and doing CFAI past years qns is a very good idea 25) take free CFAI sample exam 3 weeks before the exam 26) take CFA mock exam 10 days before the real exam 27) apply for a 2 week leave before the exam , well in advance . 28) try to understand the material rather than mug it 29) Ethics is BY FAR the most scoring and important topic in exam ( especially in level 1) 30) take lots of tests 31) If possible, study from Schweser Videos for L2 32) Everyone who studies for atleast 300 hours for L1 shall pass that exam 32) NOT Everyone who studies for 300 hours for L2 shall pass that exam 33) L2 is very difficult. Abt 4 times more difficult than L1 34) If possible, form a study group 35) Don’t start hitting on the girls in the study group. If prone to such activities, study alone 36) Talk to your friends regularly on weekends. take out 1 hour on both days for this purpose. This will ave you from burning out 37) Have a beer when you’re frustated of this F exam 38) If extremely bored of prepatration, take a weekend off. Go on a trip/ read Calvin Hobbes/ Gossip with friends. After 1 weeekend, hit the books again. Without fail 39) Don’t let people fool you into thinking that you can pass the exam in 2 weeks. That won’t happen unless you’re John Nash. 40) Join www.analystforum.com 41) It makes immense sense to talk to someone who has cleared your level (recently) before starting actual preparation 42) Don’t be afraid of the numericals. They’re not that difficult 43) for L1 - FSA , ethics are Imp 44) For L3, having a holistic view is important 45) For L2, Everything is important 46) Do not send the picture postcards you received with CFA registration to anyone, that’ll instantly classify you as nerd 47) Its better to complete one book before moving to another one, that way you’ll always have an idea about how much syllabus you’ve covered 48) Once you pass, don’t boast about the CFA program. That’s one of the most stupidest things to do. 49) If you fail once, don’t give up. If you fail twice, continue if situations were outside your control. If you fail thrice, leave it. 50) Degrees, Education, Charters, Exams are all of zero importance if you do not maintain good relationships with people. That’s the single most important thing that i’ve learnt over the three years in this program
个人分类: CFA考试|33 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 "Getting To The Bottom Of It All"
insight 2012-12-17 15:04
"Getting To The Bottom Of It All" Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/16/2012 11:42 -0500 Reality From Bill Buckler, author of The Privateer "Getting To The Bottom Of It All" To put the magnitude of the current global fiscal and financial profligacy in perspective, The Privateer has in the past made use of a simple illustration. As the “fiscal cliff” looms and as the Treasury’s debt “subject to limit” grows to about $US 60 Billion below that “limit”, we make the point again. How is it possible for a nation of almost 100 million people to survive - and indeed prosper exceedingly - when the government of that nation has a TOTAL debt of about $US 2 Billion? That question is asked in the context of today. Today, that same nation has a population of a bit more than 300 million people and is “run” by a government whose funded debts approach $US 16,400 Billion and whose TOTAL debts (funded and unfunded) are in excess of $US 200,000 Billion? That is the record of the US over the past century. Its population has tripled. Its government debt has grown by a factor of 100,000. Which - IN REALITY - is the prosperous nation? Is it the US of 1912 or the US of 2012? Which - IN REALITY - is the nation whose citizens can look confidently towards a future in which their progeny will enjoy the fruits of their parents’ labour WITHOUT being indentured to their parents’ profligacy? Which is the nation that has not yet embarked on currency debasement and which is the nation that is nearing the inevitable end of that same road? Everybody knows the answers to these questions too. Average: 4.75 Your rating: None Average: 4.8 ( 16 votes) Tweet Login or register to post comments 8609 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: Santelli Sums It Up In 10 Words: "Debt Ceiling Is Not The Problem. Debt Is The Problem" Obama’s (dumb) Line in the Sand Eric Sprott On America's Great Endangered Species: "The 99%" Is A Gold Standard Possible? Is The Fed Responsible For The Great Financial Crisis?
33 次阅读|0 个评论

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