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分享 A Stunning 60% Of All Home Purchases Are "Cash Only" - A 200% Jump In: insight 2013-8-16 15:04; A Stunning 60% Of All Home Purchases Are "Cash Only" - A 200% Jump In Five Years Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/15/2013 17:29 -0400 10 Year Bond Bond Housing Bubble Housing Market Real estate recovery Remember when housing was the primary aspirational asset for a still existent US middle class, to be purchased with some equity down by your average 30 year-old hoping to start a family in his or her brand new home, and, as the name implies, aspire to reach the American dream? Those days are long gone. Back in those days the interest rate on the 10 Year bond mattered as it determined the prevailing marginal affordability of leveraged real estate. That is no longer the case, at least not for about 90% of Americans, because as Goldman shows, while before the great crisis only 20% of home purchases were "all cash", since then the number has soared threefold, and currently the estimated percentage of cash transactions (by count and amount) has hit a record 60%. In other words, less than half of all home purchases are debt-funded, and thus less than half of all home purchases are actually representative of what middle-class America is doing. Goldman's take: Exhibit 4 shows the estimated cash transactions as percent of total home sales both by transaction count and by transaction dollar amount. Relative to the pre-crisis years, percent cash transactions has risen by about 30 percentage points. This change is broadly in line with the increases suggested by DataQuick data. The 30 percentage point increase in percent cash transactions explains almost the entire decline in the “mortgage per dollar transaction” series (with the remainder explained by small changes in average LTV ratios per mortgage). We do not have data to assess who these all-cash homebuyers are, but presumably investors who have been purchasing distressed properties and turning them into rental units have played an important role. The WSJ has a few thoughts to add: The surprisingly large cash-share of purchases helps to explain why home sales have jumped over the past two years despite more muted increases in broad measures of new mortgage activity, such as the MBA’s mortgage application index. There’s no exact way to know who is responsible for all of these cash purchases, though they are likely to include some combination of investors, foreign buyers, and wealthy homeowners that don’t want to go through the hassle of getting a mortgage before closing on a sale. Mortgage lending standards have sharply tightened up since the housing bubble, with banks scrutinizing borrowers’ tax returns and bank statements to verify their incomes and the source of their down payment. Our personal thoughts: just like the stock market has been levitating on zero volume and virtually no broad distribution, so the entire housing market appears to have morphed into a "flip that house" investment vehicle used by the usual suspects (wealthy foreign oligarchs abusing the NAR's anti-money laundering exemption to park their stolen funds in the US, government sponsored firms such as BlackStone using near zero cost REO-to-Rent subsidies, and other 0.01%-ers) who piggyback on cash flows deriving from alternative cheap credit-funded investments and translate their profits into real-estate investments. It also means that if nobody used leverage (i.e., mortgages) to buy houses before, they certainly won't do it now, all the more so with interest rates soaring and purchase affordability imploding in front of everybody's eyes. Finally, due to the very thin marginal source of bidside interest (flipper flipping to flipper and so on), it means that most of America has not participated in this mirage "recovery", and all it will take to send the buoyant housing market crashing is for the one marginal buyer to become a seller. What they will next find, is that when dealing with a bidside orderbook that has zero depth, one indeed takes the escalator down from where the lofty heights achieved courtesy of Fed-funded stairs. Average: 4.882355 Your rating: None Average: 4.9 ( 17 votes); 个人分类: real estate|37 次阅读|0 个评论

分享 Chart Of The Day: Monthly Home Payment Soars 40% To 2008 Levels: insight 2013-7-30 16:51; Chart Of The Day: Monthly Home Payment Soars 40% To 2008 Levels Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/29/2013 09:08 -0400 Credit Suisse recovery The following chart from Credit Suisse fully explains why the US housing "recovery" has just ground to a halt: in a few short weeks, US housing affordability (a topic we first covered a month ago ) has collapsed as a result of the monthly payment on the median home sold soaring by nearly 40% from under $800 to just shy of $1100, a level not seen since 2008. Now if only US personal incomes would keep pace, instead of doing this ... Average: 4.72222 Your rating: None Average: 4.7 ( 18 votes) !-- -- Tweet !-- - advertisements - .AR_2 .ob_empty {display: none;} .AR_2 .rec-link {color: #565656;text-decoration: none;font-size: 12px;} .AR_2 .rec-link:hover {color: #565656;text-decoration: underline;font-size: 12px;} .AR_2 {float: left;width:50%} .AR_2 li {list-style: none outside none !important;font-size: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;line-height: 13px;margin:0;} .AR_2 .ob_org_header {color: #000000;text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} .AR_3 .rec-link {color: #565656;text-decoration: none;font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 .rec-link:hover {color: #565656;text-decoration: underline;font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 .rec-src-link {font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 li {padding-bottom: 10px;list-style: none outside none !important;font-size: 10px;line-height: 13px;margin:0;} .AR_3 .ob_dual_left, .AR_3 .ob_dual_right {float: left;padding-bottom: 0;padding-left: 2%;padding-top: 0;} .AR_3 .ob_org_header {color: #000000; text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} .AR_3 .ob_ads_header {color: #000000; text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} -- - advertisemen Login or register to post comments 22157 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: Chart Of The Day: Plunging Gasoline Demand vs The "Soaring" Recovery And Record Dow Jones Chart Of The Day: Build America Bond Yields Hit 11 Month High Chart Of The Day: Fed Interventions Since 2008 Chart Of The Day: Americans At Or Below 125% Of The Poverty Level Chart Of The Day: Savings Rate Drops To December 2007 Levels; 个人分类: real estate|32 次阅读|0 个评论

分享 Presenting: The Housing Bubble 2.0: insight 2013-5-1 10:59; Presenting: The Housing Bubble 2.0 Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/29/2013 22:25 -0400 Ben Bernanke Bond Housing Bubble Housing Market Real estate It was just seven short years ago that the prices at the epicenter of the housing bubble, Los Angeles, CA rose by 50% every six months as the nation experienced its first parabolic move higher in home prices courtesy of Alan Greenspan's disastrous policies: a time when everyone knew intuitively the housing market was in an epic bubble, yet which nobody wanted to pop because there was just too much fun to be had chasing the bouncing ball, not to mention money. Well, courtesy of the real-time real estate pricing trackers at Altos Research , we now know that the very worst of the housing bubble is not only back, but it is at levels not seen since the days when a house in the Inland Empire was only a faint glimmer of the prototype for BitCoin. Exhibit A: The red line is the 7 day rolling average of median LA house prices per Altos ( more data here ). It is up 50% since the beginning of the year. One can only stand back and stare. Still not convinced? After all those West Coast folks are known for being a little trigger happy when it comes to "flipping that house." Which is why, from the heartland of the East Coast, we present... Exhibit B : The Gretschbuilding, an old guitar factory turned condo building in Williamsburg, just had a crazy week: Crain’s reports that three units sold in all-cash transactions, each one setting new highs on a per-square-foot basis. The units in questions were two adjacent two-bedrooms on the ninth floor, selling for $1.4 million and $1.5 million, and a larger two-bedroom on the 10th floor selling at $2.5 million — all at an average of $1,150 per square foot. “ It needs to be cash, it needs to be over ask, and (the listing) will never see the light of day,” the broker had told all the buyers.According to Crain’s, Williamsburg condos are currently averaging $794 per square foot, with high-end condos like Northside Piers bringing in closer to $1,050 per foot. The broker who handled the Gretschsales at 60 Broadway can’t seem to believe it herself: “ It’s unbelievable what’s going on out there ,” she told Crain’s. Our question is, can the high sales we’ve been seeing lately be a bubble based on low mortgage rates if the buyers are paying record-setting prices with all cash? 3 Condos Sold in Williamsburg at Record Prices Great job Bernanke Co. You have succeeded at rolling up the housing, credit, bond, tech and equity bubbles all into one. Watching the glorious unwind of all this unprecedented academic-created stupidity will be worth the hyperinflated price of admission alone. h/t @Gloeschi Average:; 个人分类: real estate|94 次阅读|0 个评论

分享 The "Undisputed Housing Recovery" Is Unmissable On This New Home Sales: insight 2013-1-27 19:57; The "Undisputed Housing Recovery" Is Unmissable On This New Home Sales Chart Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/25/2013 10:23 -0500 Census Bureau New Home Sales Reality recovery St Louis Fed We could bore readers with the just announced New Homes Sales data from the Census Bureau , which put a somewhat largish dent in the "undisputed" housing recovery fairytale taking place in America (perhaps in the Hamptons, and triplexes in Manhattan where the NAR continues to launder Chinese and Russian oligarch money) such as: December new homes sales, seasonally adjusted annualized, dropped from an upward revised 398K (was 377K) to 369K on expectations of a 385K print; That this was the biggest M/M drop since February 2011; That months supply rose from 4.5 to 4.9, the highest since January 2012; That on an unadjusted, actual basis, a tiny 26K houses were actually sold in December, compared to 24K last December, of which just 2K in the Northeast; That a whopping 1,000 houses were sold in the $750,000 and over category That houses for sale rose to 150K, the highest since December of 2011 That the punditry already spun this as being due to lack of clarity over the Fiscal Cliff and tax hikes, when in reality with expectations of higher taxes, consumers would have spent more money on hard assets in December, but why not regurgitate generic stupidity... Or we could just show this chart of the non-seasonally adjusted, unannualized New Home Sales in the past decade, and ask: just where is this recovery everyone keeps on talking about ? Source: St Louis Fed Average: 4.8 Your rating: None Average: 4.8 ( 20 votes) Tweet Login or register to post comments 15731 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: Guest Post: Will John Paulson Be Wrong This Time? Pimco Vs Shilling: The Housing Bull Vs Bear Debate No Housing Recovery On This Chart Either The Chart That Proves The Fed's Policies Have Been A Failure 18.8 Million Vacant Homes In Q3, Seasonally Adjusted Homeownership Rate At Decade Low; 个人分类: real estate|32 次阅读|0 个评论

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