China, India are ‘changing the nature’ of gold bullion markets By Myra P. Saefong Published: June 16, 2015 2:24 p.m. ET 2 HSBC says emerging markets ‘largely define’ range for gold prices Shutterstock HSBC expects EM central banks to stock up more on gold. There is a shake-up in the gold market—and emerging markets like China and India are to blame. Emerging-market demand is ‘changing the nature of the bullion market,” HSBC analysts, led by James Steel, said in a note on Tuesday. Investment demand was the primary driver of gold until recently, but “price-sensitive EM demand is an increasingly important driver of gold prices, they said. EM buyers and sellers “largely define” the range for gold—with prices near $1,100 an ounce attracting buyers, but prices near $1,300 causing buyers to “shy away from purchases,” the HSBC analysts said. Gold futures GCQ5, -0.03% settled at $1,180.90 on Tuesday . They also point out that emerging-market central banks have contributed to purchases and they expect official-sector buying this year to climb by 25%. HSBC, Thomson Reuters GFMS In China, gold demand has been hurt by a moderating economy, a pullback in demand for luxury goods, a reduction in official gift giving and strong domestic mine output—which all contributed to the nation’s slowing appetite for imported gold, analysts at HSBC said. But China’s imports are “still robust by any historical measure,” with 2014’s imports marking the second best year for bullion demand in the country’s history, they said. And so far this year, imports are running well ahead of the five-year average. Consumers in important gold-consuming nations such as China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and other emerging markets, “may have fewer tools at their disposal with which to protect savings and household wealth against rising prices or low or negative real interest rates,” the analysts said. So gold in these markets remains broadly popular since it’s viewed as an “efficient and reliable store of value,” they said. HSBC points out that annual per-capital consumption of gold in India and China is relatively low at one gram, but that also leaves “significant room for growth.” Read: Emerging markets suffer biggest outflow since the financial crisis Looking ahead, HSBC forecast a broad price range of $1,120 to $1,305 an ounce for the rest of this year, with an average price of $1,234, which is unchanged from its previous estimate. It also left its average price forecasts at $1,275 for 2016 and $1,300 for 2017, with its five-year view at $1,325 an ounce.
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