Based on the argument of growth accounting and other determinants, how would you anticipate the potential room for the future growth of China under the new normal steady state? China’s prospect for moderate growth are quite good given the track record of total factor productivity (TFP) growth over the last 20 years. A country’s growth potential is determined in large part by its ability to efficiently combine the factors of production with the highest productivity possible. Economic advancement based on superficial determinants such as increasing the quantity of the factors of production (i.e. increasing the number of physical capital devices and simply increasing the number of years in school), is not sustainable, because it does not address the performance of these factors, the deeper driver of growth. While China’s TFP has consistently lagged behind many Western countries, the growth in China’s TFP has been significant and sustained since Reform and Opening, suggesting that as long as the government continues to invest in policies that increase factor productivity, such as supportive infrastructure for physical capital, quality of education, and other efficiency-increasing investments, reasonable growth is highly probable.
“I started from this damn recession and what it meant to so many people who lost their job. There are many extremely talented dancers kicked out or chefs left without a job, those who pass by us on the street and whose incredible ability to dance or to prepare exceptional dishes remain the same, at any time. Dance always accompanies a dancer, whether he is paid for what he does, or not” said Jordan Matter.
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