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：高盛高华证券
Electronic Components:Switching our preference on smartphone theme; Largan up to Buy计算机行业

研究机构：高盛高华证券 分析师： Robert ... 撰写日期：2011年01月19日

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    Our global handsets team recently raised its 2010E-2012E smartphoneshipment forecasts by 4%-8% to factor in robust holiday demand andhigher smartphone penetration in developed markets. This is consistentwith our recent upward revision in HTC’s (2498.TW, Buy, on CL) earningsforecasts (which are higher than street estimates), as we expect HTC toaccount for 30%-40% of both Android and Windows phone shipments.
    Switching our component preference: Largan over AAC Acoustic。
    In our component segment, while we think both Largan and AAC Acousticare structurally sound in their respective domains, we believe Largan offersbetter share price upside potential on strong earnings growth even thoughits share price has run up 95% in the past 12 months. We maintain Neutralon Silitech due to structural challenges in its handset keypad business. Weraise Largan’s 2011E-2012E EPS by 16%-28% and slightly revise down our2011E-12E EPS for AAC Acoustic and Silitech by 3%-4%. We revise our 12-month P/B-based TPs for the 3 stocks by -4% to +66%.
    Largan: Upgrade to Buy from Neutral on three catalysts。
    We upgrade Largan to Buy as we expect it to benefit from three structuraltailwinds in leveraging the strong smartphone/tablet growth: (1) continuedlens content upgrade, especially when Apple launches iPhone 5 (likely thissummer) in which it may use Largan’s 5p lens (from iPhone 4’s 4p lens); (2)pixel migration, as we expect 12MP to gradually ramp up for smartphones(from current 5/8MP), and 5MP for tablets (from current HD cam) in 2012; (3)new 3D camera design to increase Largan’s total addressable market.
    AAC Acoustic: Lesser upside than Largan, down to Neutral。
    We downgrade AAC Acoustic to Neutral (from Buy). Despite delay in its LEDTV speaker array shipments, we believe AAC’s other businesses continue totrack in line with our estimates with its expanding component productportfolio and rising industry entry barriers. However, we see lesser share priceupside potential for AAC as compared with Largan.
    Silitech: Neutral on structural challenges in keypad business。
    We maintain Neutral on Silitech, as we see its core handset keypadbusiness facing structural challenges from both customers (Nokia and RIM)and technology substitution (touch panel + Swype) perspectives.

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