【德意志银行】2011 China economic outlook，2011 China market strategy

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2011 China market strategy
We believe that the inflation trajectory in 2011 will be the single most important macro driver
for market performance. We expect inflation to stay uncomfortably high in most of 1H11 (in
the range of 4-5% yoy), but it will likely decline towards 3-4% in 2H due to the impact of
monetary tightening and a more favourable base effect. High inflation in 1H tends to depress
the market as it generates fear of policy tightening. An easing of inflation in 2H should justify
a market rerating as policy uncertainties are removed. For the year as a whole, we expect
MSCI China to rise 15% from its level at the end of 2010.
Our sector strategy for the year will change according to the inflation profile. During periods
in 1H when inflation remains high and even rises, we will prefer sectors that are less
vulnerable to credit tightening, rate hikes, and price intervention. In particular, we prefer large
banks, insurance, commercial properties, retailing, equipment, IT services, and tourism. We
will be cautious on IPPs, coal, smaller banks, oil and gas, and highly leveraged developers.

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关键词：Strategy Economic Outlook Strateg market Economic Strategy market 德意志银行 Outlook

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