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| 研究机构：摩根大通(亚太) 分析师： Brynja ... 撰写日期：2011年01月17日 | 字体[ 大 中 小 ] |
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We initiate coverage with an OW rating and Dec 11 PT of HK$2.5 (24%potential upside): Since 2004, MIE has seen a CAGR in gross production of39% at the 90%-owned three fields it operates. We expect 20% gross productiongrowth in 2010E and 15% in 2011E (excl. Miao3). Expected growth carries lowgeological risk, as the fields have been sufficiently delineated and only requiredrilling wells and tying into existing infrastructure. MIE has identified around1,400 well locations (2P undev), which should generate the expected growth.
Previous spending has been predominantly recovered, and we expect futurespending typically to be recovered within the next month of operation.
Organic growth supplemented by M&A for further growth: MIE hasdeveloped expertise in developing low permeability reservoirs such as in theSongliao basin. The area is scattered with small independent companies,operating under the PSC structure with PetroChina. As one of the leadingindependent operators in the area, MIE believes it can add production acreageby acquiring existing PSCs (MOU with Ningjiang Expl Co.) or signing newPSCs with domestic operators (it currently has MOUs with Sinopec andYanchang, possibly resulting in new PSCs). Having been successful in theircurrent fields gives them an advantage over other operators with respect to howPetroChina views it. Internationally, MIE also plans to utilize its expertisethrough acquiring low permeability assets abroad.
Investment risks: Oil price is the main risk to MIE’s operational and financialperformance. Should M&A fail, it would also hamper growth beyond exhaustingcurrent acreage. There is a risk attached to the availability of field serviceequipment and personnel to execute the development plan, although we see thisas low, mitigated by longer-term commitments and good relationships with localservice providers. Relying on PetroChina for crude offtake also proved a risk in1Q09.
Our Dec 11 PT of HK$2.5 is based on a 20% premium to DCF usingUS$80/bbl oil price (Brent) and 8.5% WACC: Without this premium, a valueof HK$2.5 in our DCF model reflects US$94/bbl oil. PT also yields10.5x/4x/2.2x 2011E P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/BV. We apply a 20% premiumbecause of upside we see from the current MOUs resulting in added reserves andproduction. Main risks to our rating and PT are lower than expected productionand oil price, failure to add value from M&A, and higher-than-expected costs.
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