发帖
雷达卡
China’s Exports during the Global Pandemic
2 作者信息
Yi Che
Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Weiqiang Liu, Yan Zhang
School of Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (SUFE)
Lin Zhao
Institute for Advanced Research, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (SUFE)
3 出处
Yi Che,Weiqiang Liu,Yan Zhang, et al. China’s Exports during the Global COVID-19 Pandemic[J]. Front. Econ. China, 2020, 15(4): 541-574.
链接
http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/10.3868/s060-011-020-0023-7
http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/Y2020/V15/I4/541
4 摘要
Abstract: The global COVID-19 pandemic caused various economic contraction in most countries, including all of China’s major trading partners. Using a difference-in-differences model, this study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on China’s monthly exports from January 2019 to May 2020. We find strong and robust evidence that China’s exports to countries at high risk from the pandemic experienced a larger decline than exports to low-risk countries after the onset of the pandemic, with the prices of exports increasing significantly. Furthermore, the results of a triple differences model show heterogeneous effects across different industries and goods. Chinese industries located upstream in the global value chain are more vulnerable than those located downstream. Industries with high labor and contract intensity (proxies for processing trade) experienced greater declines than other industries. Exports of goods with high import elasticity of substitution experienced higher prices and moderate volume losses due to the pandemic.
全球疫情大流行期间的中国出口
车翼，刘伟强，张燕，赵琳
摘要：新冠肺炎疫情的全球大流行已经导致包括中国主要贸易伙伴在内的大多数国家出现不同程度的经济收缩。本文使用双重差分模型考察了2019年1月至2020年5月期间新冠肺炎疫情对于中国月度出口情况的影响。强有力的证据表明，疫情爆发之后，中国对疫情高风险国家的出口相比疫情低风险国家的出口经历了更大幅度的下降，而出口价格却显著上涨。此外，三重差分模型结果表明在不同行业和商品之间存在非均匀效应。位于全球价值链上游的中国产业相比下游产业更加脆弱。相比其他产业，具有较高劳动和合约密集度的产业（作为加工贸易的代理指标）经历更大的跌幅。受疫情影响，具有较高进口替代弹性的商品，其出口价格上涨幅度更大，其出口数量下降幅度更少。
作者简介：
车 翼：上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院经济系副教授，香港大学战略与国际商务博士。研究兴趣为国际经济、中国经济和政治经济。其研究发表于Journal of International Economics, Economic Journal, Journal of International Business Studies, Canadian Journal of Economics, Journal of Comparative Economics等国际一流期刊。
刘伟强：上海财经大学经济学院在读博士研究生，研究领域为金融计量学、应用计量经济学。
张 燕：上海财经大学经济学院副教授，香港大学博士。主要研究领域为国际经济、中国经济问题等，主要学术成果发表在Journal of International Economics， Journal of Comparative Economics，China Economics Review等。
赵 琳：上海财经大学高等研究院助理研究员。长期从事对外贸易和能源问题的研究，相关研究成果发表于The Energy Journal, Energy Economics,《财经研究》等重要学术期刊。
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