The COVID-19 Pandemic in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model
Qichun He
China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics
链接
http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/10.3868/s060-011-020-0025-1
http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/Y2020/V15/I4/626
4 摘要
Abstract: In this paper, following Blanchard and Fischer (1989), I investigate how the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic—the increase in the probability of death—may affect growth and welfare in a scale-invariant R&D-based Schumpeterian model. Without money, the increase in the probability of death has no effect on long-run growth and a negative effect on welfare. By contrast, when money is introduced via the cash-in-advance (CIA) constraint on consumption, the increase in the probability of death decreases long-run growth and welfare under elastic labor supply. Calibration shows that the quantitative effect of an increase in the probability of death on welfare is much larger compared to that on growth.
何其春
摘要:本文中,作者参考Blanchard 和 Fischer (1989)在一个比例不变、基于研发的熊彼特模型里考察了新冠肺炎大流行的存在—死亡率的上升—如何影响增长和福利。在没有货币的模型里,死亡率的上升对于长期增长没有影响,对于福利有负面影响。相比之下,当货币通过预付现金对于消费的制约被引入模型,在弹性劳动力供给的情况下,死亡率的上升会降低长期增长和福利。定量校正分析结果表明,死亡率上升对于福利的量化效应远比其对于增长的量化效应大。
作者简介:
何其春:中央财经大学中国经济与管理研究院教授,毕业于加拿大英属哥伦比亚大学,研究领域为宏观经济学、经济增长理论与实证、中国经济。曾在《经济研究》、《经济学(季刊)》、《世界经济》、CER, Economics Letters, Economic Modelling等中外知名期刊发表论文数十篇,并获评“教育部新世纪优秀人才”。