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Inclusive human development in pre-crisis times of globalisation-driven debts-全球化债务驱动下危机前的包容性人类发展
2005-01-20
The paper verifies the Azzimonti et al. (2014) conclusions on a sample of 53 African countries for the period 1996-2008. Authors of the underlying study have established theoretical underpinnings for a negative nexus between rising public debt and inequality in OECD nations. We assess the effects of four debt dynamics on inequality adjusted human development. Instrumental variable and interactive regressions were employed as empirical strategies. Two main findings were established which depend on whether debt is endogenous to or interactive with globalisation. First, when external debt is endogenous to globalisation, the effect on inclusive human development is negative, whereas when it is interactive with globalisation, the effect is positive. This may reflect the false economics of pre-conditions. The magnitudes of negative estimates from endogenous related effects were higher than the positive marginal interactive effects. Policy implications were discussed.

本文验证了Azzimonti et al.(2014)对1996-2008年53个非洲国家样本的结论。这项基础研究的作者为经合组织(OECD)国家不断上升的公共债务和不平等之间的负相关性奠定了理论基础。我们评估了四种债务动态对经不平等调整的人类发展的影响。实证策略采用工具变量和交互回归。根据债务是全球化的内生因素还是与全球化相互作用,得出了两个主要结论。首先,当外债是全球化的内生因素时,它对包容性人类发展的影响是负面的,而当外债与全球化相互作用时,它对包容性人类发展的影响是积极的。这可能反映出预设条件的错误经济学。内生相关效应的负估计量高于正的边际交互效应。讨论了政策影响。

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