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骗子,这是骗钱的花样
贸易和全球衰退--论文
TRADE AND THE GLOBAL RECESSION
Global trade fell 30 percent relative to GDP during the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Did this collapse
result from factors impeding international transactions or did it simply reflect the greater severity of
the recession in highly traded sectors? We answer this question with detailed international data, interpreted
within a general-equilibrium trade model. Counterfactual simulations of the model show that a shift
in spending away from manufactures, particularly durables, accounts for more than 80 percent of the
drop in trade/GDP. Increased trade impediments reduced trade in some countries, but globally the
impact of these changes largely cancels out.
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