认识新冠肺炎病死率

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摘要翻译：
新冠肺炎的一个重要参数是病死率。然而，对CFR的几个方面，包括对CFR重要的人口因素、不同国家CFR的明显差异以及年龄效应是如何发挥作用等，仍缺乏了解。我们分析了2020年7月6日和12月28日两个不同时间快照的CFRs，一个是在新冠肺炎疫情的第一波，另一个是第二波。我们考虑了两个重要的人口协变量，年龄和GDP作为公共卫生质量和丰富程度的代理。广泛的探索性数据分析导致了一些有趣的发现。首先，不同年龄组之间存在明显的指数年龄效应，更重要的是，指数指数在流行病的国家和时间之间几乎是不变的。第二，年龄和国内生产总值发挥的作用有点令人惊讶：在第一波疫情期间，年龄是比国内生产总值更重要的因素，而在第二波疫情期间，年龄和国内生产总值的作用发生了变化，这可能是公共卫生和医学研究的质量和丰富程度被纳入因素的时间延迟造成的部分原因。
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英文标题：
《Towards Understanding the COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate》
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作者：
Donghui Yan, Aiyou Chen, Buqing Yang
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最新提交年份：
2021
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分类信息：

一级分类：Statistics        统计学
二级分类：Applications        应用程序
分类描述：Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学，教育学，流行病学，工程学，环境科学，医学，物理科学，质量控制，社会科学
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一级分类：Quantitative Biology        数量生物学
二级分类：Other Quantitative Biology        其他定量生物学
分类描述：Work in quantitative biology that does not fit into the other q-bio classifications
不适合其他q-bio分类的定量生物学工作
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英文摘要：
  An important parameter for COVID-19 is the case fatality rate (CFR). It has been applied to wide applications, including the measure of the severity of the infection, the estimation of the number of infected cases, risk assessment etc. However, there remains a lack of understanding on several aspects of CFR, including population factors that are important to CFR, the apparent discrepancy of CFRs in different countries, and how the age effect comes into play. We analyze the CFRs at two different time snapshots, July 6 and Dec 28, 2020, with one during the first wave and the other a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. We consider two important population covariates, age and GDP as a proxy for the quality and abundance of public health. Extensive exploratory data analysis leads to some interesting findings. First, there is a clear exponential age effect among different age groups, and, more importantly, the exponential index is almost invariant across countries and time in the pandemic. Second, the roles played by the age and GDP are a little surprising: during the first wave, age is a more significant factor than GDP, while their roles have switched during the second wave of the pandemic, which may be partially explained by the delay in time for the quality and abundance of public health and medical research to factor in.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2103.01313

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关键词：病死率 Quantitative Applications epidemiology QUANTITATIV 缺乏 方面 CFRs 新冠 during