摘要翻译:
在本研究中,我们从一个城市流动服务的角度来考虑旅行者的优惠券兑换行为。假设旅行者行为符合效用最大化原则,首先在马尔可夫决策过程框架下建立了旅行者期望未来出行序列的基线动力学模型,并由此导出了最优优惠券兑换策略的近似值。然而,我们发现该基线模型不能完全解释共享汽车服务的旅行者的优惠券兑换行为。为了解决这种对效用最大化行为的偏离,我们提出了一个假设,即旅行者可能不知道他们可以获得的所有优惠券。在此假设的基础上,我们建立了一个关于无意识的注意力不集中模型,该模型补充了现有的注意力不集中模型,并将其纳入基线模型。估计结果表明,所提出的模型比基线模型更好地解释了息票赎回数据集。我们还进行了一个模拟实验来量化无意识对优惠券促销效果的负面影响。这些结果可供移动服务运营商在实践中设计有效的优惠券分配方案。
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英文标题:
《An Inattention Model for Traveler Behavior with e-Coupons》
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作者:
Han Qiu
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最新提交年份:
2018
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分类信息:
一级分类:Economics 经济学
二级分类:Theoretical Economics 理论经济学
分类描述:Includes theoretical contributions to Contract Theory, Decision Theory, Game Theory, General Equilibrium, Growth, Learning and Evolution, Macroeconomics, Market and Mechanism Design, and Social Choice.
包括对契约理论、决策理论、博弈论、一般均衡、增长、学习与进化、宏观经济学、市场与机制设计、社会选择的理论贡献。
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一级分类:Statistics 统计学
二级分类:Applications 应用程序
分类描述:Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学,教育学,流行病学,工程学,环境科学,医学,物理科学,质量控制,社会科学
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英文摘要:
In this study, we consider traveler coupon redemption behavior from the perspective of an urban mobility service. Assuming traveler behavior is in accordance with the principle of utility maximization, we first formulate a baseline dynamical model for traveler's expected future trip sequence under the framework of Markov decision processes and from which we derive approximations of the optimal coupon redemption policy. However, we find that this baseline model cannot explain perfectly observed coupon redemption behavior of traveler for a car-sharing service. To resolve this deviation from utility-maximizing behavior, we suggest a hypothesis that travelers may not be aware of all coupons available to them. Based on this hypothesis, we formulate an inattention model on unawareness, which is complementary to the existing models of inattention, and incorporate it into the baseline model. Estimation results show that the proposed model better explains the coupon redemption dataset than the baseline model. We also conduct a simulation experiment to quantify the negative impact of unawareness on coupons' promotional effects. These results can be used by mobility service operators to design effective coupon distribution schemes in practice.
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PDF链接:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.05070