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摘要翻译：
2008年的金融危机最初是以抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)为中心的，已经蔓延成全球经济衰退，其日益严重和持续时间不确定已经并将继续导致数十亿人的巨大损失和损害。在世界范围内，特别是在美国和欧洲，央行已经启动了大规模的干预和ZF支出计划，希望解冻信贷和提振消费。在此，我们提出证据并阐明一个总的框架，使人们能够诊断正在发生的金融和经济危机的根本原因：几个泡沫的积累及其相互作用和相互强化导致了一种“永久货币机器”的幻觉，使金融机构能够从不可持续的人为过程中提取财富。总结这一诊断，我们得出结论，许多应对所谓流动性危机和鼓励更多消费的干预措施都是不明智的，甚至是危险的，因为预防性储备不是在“好时期”积累的，而是在“好时期”积累的巨额负债。最“有趣”的当今时代既是独特的机遇，也是巨大的挑战，为此我们提出一些建议。
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英文标题：
《Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the
Financial and Economic Crisis》
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作者：
Didier Sornette and Ryan Woodard
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最新提交年份：
2009
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Risk Management 风险管理
分类描述：Measurement and management of financial risks in trading, banking, insurance, corporate and other applications
衡量和管理贸易、银行、保险、企业和其他应用中的金融风险
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
The financial crisis of 2008, which started with an initially well-defined epicenter focused on mortgage backed securities (MBS), has been cascading into a global economic recession, whose increasing severity and uncertain duration has led and is continuing to lead to massive losses and damage for billions of people. Heavy central bank interventions and government spending programs have been launched worldwide and especially in the USA and Europe, with the hope to unfreeze credit and boltster consumption. Here, we present evidence and articulate a general framework that allows one to diagnose the fundamental cause of the unfolding financial and economic crisis: the accumulation of several bubbles and their interplay and mutual reinforcement has led to an illusion of a "perpetual money machine" allowing financial institutions to extract wealth from an unsustainable artificial process. Taking stock of this diagnostic, we conclude that many of the interventions to address the so-called liquidity crisis and to encourage more consumption are ill-advised and even dangerous, given that precautionary reserves were not accumulated in the "good times" but that huge liabilities were. The most "interesting" present times constitute unique opportunities but also great challenges, for which we offer a few recommendations.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0905.0220
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