发帖
雷达卡
摘要翻译：
我们利用流行病学的见解，即SIR模型，研究代理人如何用“投资理念”相互感染。一旦一个投资想法“疯传”，均衡价格就会出现典型的“狂热高峰”，这是投机性过度行为的特征。利用我们的模型，我们确定了一条症状的时间线，表明繁荣是在其早期还是后期阶段。关于市场的顶部，我们发现价格开始下降，而购买资产的受感染代理人的数量仍在上升。此外，完全理性的代理人的存在（一）加速繁荣（二）降低峰值价格和（三）产生广泛的、长期的市场高点。
---
英文标题：
《Thought Viruses and Asset Prices》
---
作者：
Wolfgang Kuhle
---
最新提交年份：
2018
---
分类信息：
一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：General Economics 一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
--
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
--
---
英文摘要：
We use insights from epidemiology, namely the SIR model, to study how agents infect each other with "investment ideas." Once an investment idea "goes viral," equilibrium prices exhibit the typical "fever peak," which is characteristic for speculative excesses. Using our model, we identify a time line of symptoms that indicate whether a boom is in its early or later stages. Regarding the market's top, we find that prices start to decline while the number of infected agents, who buy the asset, is still rising. Moreover, the presence of fully rational agents (i) accelerates booms (ii) lowers peak prices and (iii) produces broad, drawn-out, market tops.
---
PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1812.11417
京公网安备 11010802022788号
