摘要翻译:
本研究的主要目的是对两组已发表的研究进行荟萃分析。首先是评估美国农业部(USDA)的预测,其次是评估市场对USDA预测的反应。我们调查四个问题。1)这些研究如何评估美国农业部预测的准确性?2)他们如何评价市场对美国农业部预测的反应?3)上述研究结果是否存在异质性?4)是否存在出版偏差?关于第一个问题,虽然一些研究者认为预测是无偏见的,但大多数人坚持认为它们是有偏见的、低效的、不最佳的或不合理的。关于第二个问题,虽然一些研究声称预测不具有新闻价值,但大多数人坚持认为它们具有新闻价值,提供了有用的信息,并引起了市场反应。关于第三和第四个问题,根据我们的发现,有一些线索表明研究结果是异质性的,但我们没有找到足够的出版偏差的证据。
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英文标题:
《USDA Forecasts: A meta-analysis study》
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作者:
Bahram Sanginabadi
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最新提交年份:
2018
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分类信息:
一级分类:Economics 经济学
二级分类:Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述:Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论,微观计量经济学,宏观计量经济学,通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容,统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:General Finance 一般财务
分类描述:Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要:
The primary goal of this study is doing a meta-analysis research on two groups of published studies. First, the ones that focus on the evaluation of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts and second, the ones that evaluate the market reactions to the USDA forecasts. We investigate four questions. 1) How the studies evaluate the accuracy of the USDA forecasts? 2) How they evaluate the market reactions to the USDA forecasts? 3) Is there any heterogeneity in the results of the mentioned studies? 4) Is there any publication bias? About the first question, while some researchers argue that the forecasts are unbiased, most of them maintain that they are biased, inefficient, not optimal, or not rational. About the second question, while a few studies claim that the forecasts are not newsworthy, most of them maintain that they are newsworthy, provide useful information, and cause market reactions. About the third and the fourth questions, based on our findings, there are some clues that the results of the studies are heterogeneous, but we didn't find enough evidences of publication bias.
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PDF链接:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1801.06575