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摘要翻译：
我们实证研究了金融时间序列数据的效率程度与可预测性之间的关系。用Hurst指数作为衡量效率的指标，用最近邻预测法计算出的命中率来预测未来价格的变化方向。我们使用了60个不同国家的市场指数。我们的经验发现效率度（Hurst指数）和可预测性（命中率）之间的关系是强正的。也就是说，具有较高赫斯特指数的市场指数往往具有较高的命中率。这些结果表明，赫斯特指数对预测未来价格变化是有用的。此外，我们还发现赫斯特指数和命中率可以作为区分新兴资本市场和成熟资本市场的标准。
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英文标题：
《Hurst exponent and prediction based on weak-form efficient market
hypothesis of stock markets》
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作者：
Cheoljun Eom, Sunghoon Choi, Gabjin Oh, Woo-Sung Jung
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最新提交年份：
2007
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Statistical Finance 统计金融
分类描述：Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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英文摘要：
We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the directions of future price changes. We used 60 market indexes of various countries. We empirically discovered that the relationship between the degree of efficiency (the Hurst exponent) and the predictability (the hit rate) is strongly positive. That is, a market index with a higher Hurst exponent tends to have a higher hit rate. These results suggested that the Hurst exponent is useful for predicting future price changes. Furthermore, we also discovered that the Hurst exponent and the hit rate are useful as standards that can distinguish emerging capital markets from mature capital markets.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0712.1624
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