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摘要翻译：
提出了一个实证模型，将通货膨胀和失业率与瑞士劳动力水平的变化联系起来。发现所涉及的变量是协整的，我们用累积曲线法估计滞后的线性确定性关系，这是一维边界元法的简化版本。该模型对三年的通货膨胀率作出了非常准确的预测。这些结果与以前为美国、日、法和其他发达国家估计的模型一致，并进一步验证了我们仅基于劳动力的定量框架。最后，考虑到通货膨胀预测对瑞士货币政策的重要性，我们根据官方对劳动力水平的预测，提出了一个延长到2050年的预测。
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英文标题：
《Inflation and unemployment in Switzerland: from 1970 to 2050》
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作者：
Oleg Kitov, Ivan Kitov
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最新提交年份：
2011
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
An empirical model is presented linking inflation and unemployment rate to the change in the level of labour force in Switzerland. The involved variables are found to be cointegrated and we estimate lagged linear deterministic relationships using the method of cumulative curves, a simplified version of the 1D Boundary Elements Method. The model yields very accurate predictions of the inflation rate on a three year horizon. The results are coherent with the models estimated previously for the US, Japan, France and other developed countries and provide additional validation of our quantitative framework based solely on labour force. Finally, given the importance of inflation forecasts for the Swiss monetary policy, we present a prediction extended into 2050 based on official projections of the labour force level.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1102.5405
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