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摘要翻译：
考虑到歧义信念，我展示了如何揭示几个偏好类的歧义感知。在所提出的启发式机制中，智能体在不同的下注赔率下混合对不确定事件及其补充的二值化下注。混合是关于相关概率区间的信息。特别地，该机制允许区分模糊信念和点信念，并识别maxmin和maxmax偏好的相关概率的间隔。对于光滑的二阶和变分偏好，该机制揭示了内在的界限，在附加的假设下，这些界限是尖锐的。一个实验的实现表明，参与者对股票指数和其他参与者行为的主观模糊性几乎与对Ellsberg urn的主观模糊性相同，表明模糊性在现实世界决策中的重要性。对于股票市场，女性参与者感知到更多的模糊性，但既不更加悲观，也不更加厌恶模糊性。
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英文标题：
《Elicitation of ambiguous beliefs with mixing bets》
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作者：
Patrick Schmidt
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最新提交年份：
2021
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分类信息：
一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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英文摘要：
Considering ambiguous beliefs, I show how to reveal ambiguity perception for several preference classes. In the proposed elicitation mechanism, agents mix binarized bets on the uncertain event and its complement under varying betting odds. Mixing is informative about the interval of relevant probabilities. In particular, the mechanism allows to distinguish ambiguous beliefs from point beliefs, and identifies the interval of relevant probabilities for maxmin and maxmax preferences. For smooth second order and variational preferences, the mechanism reveals inner bounds, which are sharp under additional assumptions. An experimental implementation suggests that participants perceive almost as much subjective ambiguity for the stock index and actions of other participants as for the Ellsberg urn, indicating the importance of ambiguity in real-world decision making. For the stock market, female participants perceived more ambiguity, but were neither more pessimistic nor more ambiguity averse.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.07447
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