摘要翻译:
人均实际国内生产总值增长率由两个部分组成----单调递减的经济趋势和与特定年龄人口变化有关的波动。经济趋势是由人均实际GDP的反函数来模拟的,其中分子对于最大的发达经济体来说可能是常数。对1950年至2004年间19个选定的经合组织国家的统计分析表明,美国、日本、法国、意大利和西班牙等最大经济体的年人均GDP增量呈非常微弱的线性趋势。英国、澳大利亚和加拿大显示出更大的正线性趋势。趋势值附近的波动具有准正态分布特征,远尾具有潜在的Levy分布。发展中国家的增长率远低于最发达经济体的平均增长率。这表明,尽管相对增长率较高,但表现不佳。
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英文标题:
《Real GDP per capita in developed countries》
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作者:
Ivan O. Kitov
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最新提交年份:
2008
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分类信息:
一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:General Finance 一般财务
分类描述:Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类:Physics 物理学
二级分类:Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述:Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体(人类或其他)的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统(如能源网、运输网络)的物理和工程。
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英文摘要:
Growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components -- a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to a specific age population change. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a numerator potentially constant for the largest developed economies. Statistical analysis of 19 selected OECD countries for the period between 1950 and 2004 shows a very weak linear trend in the annual GDP per capita increment for the largest economies: the USA, Japan, France, Italy, and Spain. The UK, Australia, and Canada show a larger positive linear trend. The fluctuations around the trend values are characterized by a quasi-normal distribution with potentially Levy distribution for far tails. Developing countries demonstrate the increment values far below the mean increment for the most developed economies. This indicates an underperformance in spite of large relative growth rates.
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PDF链接:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0811.0889