摘要翻译:
本文考虑了一个经常被遗忘的关系,即经济和金融中因果之间的时间延迟。我们处理外国直接投资(FDI)和经济增长的情况,通过一个国家的国内生产总值(GDP)来衡量。相关数据涉及43个国家,在1970年至2015年期间,共进行了4278次观测。根据不平等调整后的人类发展指数(IHDI)对各国进行分组时,发现FDI与GDP的相关性存在时滞依赖效应。这是通过一个与时间相关的皮尔森积矩相关系数矩阵建立的。此外,观察到这种皮尔逊相关系数根据IHDI从正到负值、从低到高演变。在时间滞后小于3年的情况下,相关性在统计上显著,这是“政治和政策”相关的。本文证明了一个“等级-规模”定律。建议在讨论以前关于国际贸易的结论的分析以及随后的预测时重新考虑这种时间滞后效应。
---
英文标题:
《Evidence for Gross Domestic Product growth time delay dependence over
Foreign Direct Investment. A time-lag dependent correlation study》
---
作者:
Marcel Ausloos, Ali Eskandary, Parmjit Kaur, Gurjeet Dhesi
---
最新提交年份:
2019
---
分类信息:
一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:General Finance 一般财务
分类描述:Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
--
一级分类:Economics 经济学
二级分类:General Economics 一般经济学
分类描述:General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
--
一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:Economics 经济学
分类描述:q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学,包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
--
---
英文摘要:
This paper considers an often forgotten relationship, the time delay between a cause and its effect in economies and finance. We treat the case of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth, - measured through a country Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The pertinent data refers to 43 countries, over 1970-2015, - for a total of 4278 observations. When countries are grouped according to the Inequality-Adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI), it is found that a time lag dependence effect exists in FDI-GDP correlations. This is established through a time-dependent Pearson 's product-moment correlation coefficient matrix. Moreover, such a Pearson correlation coefficient is observed to evolve from positive to negative values depending on the IHDI, from low to high. It is "politically and policy "relevant" that the correlation is statistically significant providing the time lag is less than 3 years. A "rank-size" law is demonstrated. It is recommended to reconsider such a time lag effect when discussing previous analyses whence conclusions on international business, and thereafter on forecasting.
---
PDF链接:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1905.01617