量子决策中的风险与不确定性物理学

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摘要翻译：
作者最近发展起来的量子决策理论用于阐明风险和不确定性在决策中的作用，特别是与动态不一致性现象有关的作用。通过用精确的数学术语表述这一概念，我们区分了三种类型的不一致性：时间不一致性、计划悖论和某些折扣效应中出现的不一致性。经典决策理论很好地解释了时间不一致性，但规划悖论与经典效用理论是矛盾的。它在量子决策理论框架中找到了一个自然的解释。对不同类型的折扣效应进行了分析，并证明了在所建议的理论中享有直接的解释。我们还介绍了一种基于自相似近似理论的通用方法，用于推导未来前景概率的发展方程。这为可能的贴现因子提供了一种新的分类，其中包括以前已知的情况（指数或双曲线贴现），但也预测了一种新的贴现因子类别，这些贴现因子在非常大的未来时间范围内衰减到严格的正常数。这类课程可能有助于处理与代际公共政策选择相关的非常长期的折扣情况，包括全球变暖和核废料处理等问题。
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英文标题：
《Physics of risk and uncertainty in quantum decision making》
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作者：
V.I. Yukalov and D. Sornette
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最新提交年份：
2009
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分类信息：

一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Computer Science        计算机科学
二级分类：Artificial Intelligence        人工智能
分类描述：Covers all areas of AI except Vision, Robotics, Machine Learning, Multiagent Systems, and Computation and Language (Natural Language Processing), which have separate subject areas. In particular, includes Expert Systems, Theorem Proving (although this may overlap with Logic in Computer Science), Knowledge Representation, Planning, and Uncertainty in AI. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.0, I.2.1, I.2.3, I.2.4, I.2.8, and I.2.11.
涵盖了人工智能的所有领域，除了视觉、机器人、机器学习、多智能体系统以及计算和语言（自然语言处理），这些领域有独立的学科领域。特别地，包括专家系统，定理证明（尽管这可能与计算机科学中的逻辑重叠），知识表示，规划，和人工智能中的不确定性。大致包括ACM学科类I.2.0、I.2.1、I.2.3、I.2.4、I.2.8和I.2.11中的材料。
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Quantum Physics        量子物理学
分类描述：Description coming soon
描述即将到来
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英文摘要：
  The Quantum Decision Theory, developed recently by the authors, is applied to clarify the role of risk and uncertainty in decision making and in particular in relation to the phenomenon of dynamic inconsistency. By formulating this notion in precise mathematical terms, we distinguish three types of inconsistency: time inconsistency, planning paradox, and inconsistency occurring in some discounting effects. While time inconsistency is well accounted for in classical decision theory, the planning paradox is in contradiction with classical utility theory. It finds a natural explanation in the frame of the Quantum Decision Theory. Different types of discounting effects are analyzed and shown to enjoy a straightforward explanation within the suggested theory. We also introduce a general methodology based on self-similar approximation theory for deriving the evolution equations for the probabilities of future prospects. This provides a novel classification of possible discount factors, which include the previously known cases (exponential or hyperbolic discounting), but also predicts a novel class of discount factors that decay to a strictly positive constant for very large future time horizons. This class may be useful to deal with very long-term discounting situations associated with intergenerational public policy choices, encompassing issues such as global warming and nuclear waste disposal.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0812.2388

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关键词：不确定性 物理学 确定性 不确定 Quantitative planning 用于 risk 可能 处理