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摘要翻译：
社会保障和其他公共政策可被视为一系列现金流入和流出，取决于人口年龄分布和退休年龄等参数。根据对这些参数的预测，政策可以设计为财务稳定，即以零余额结束。如果现实偏离了预测，政策通常会以盈余或赤字告终。我们推导出即使在预测错误存在的情况下，以零余额终止的稳健政策的现金流约束。社会保障和大多数类似的政策都不健全。我们证明了非平凡鲁棒策略的存在，并提供了构造非鲁棒策略的鲁棒扩展的方法。一个例子说明了我们的结果。
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英文标题：
《Mathematical Constraints on Financially Viable Public Policy》
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作者：
Martin Gremm and Mark B. Wise
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最新提交年份：
2012
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
Social Security and other public policies can be viewed as a series of cash in and outflows that depend on parameters such as the age distribution of the population and the retirement age. Given forecasts of these parameters, policies can be designed to be financially stable, i.e., to terminate with a zero balance. If reality deviates from the forecasts, policies normally terminate with a surplus or a deficit. We derive constraints on the cash flows of robust policies that terminate with zero balance even in the presence of forecasting errors. Social Security and most similar policies are not robust. We show that non-trivial robust policies exist and provide a recipe for constructing robust extensions of non-robust policies. An example illustrates our results.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1201.6340
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