摘要翻译:
时变参数模型是经济学中常用的结构变化模型。我证明它们实际上是脊回归。即刻,这使得计算、调优和实现比状态空间范例中容易得多。除其他外,解决等效的对偶脊线问题在计算上非常快,即使在高维,关键的“时间变化量”是通过交叉验证调整的。演变的波动性处理使用两步岭回归。我考虑包含稀疏性(算法选择哪些参数变化,哪些参数不变化)和降秩限制(变化与因子模型相关)的扩展。为了证明这种方法的有效性,我用它来研究加拿大货币政策的演变。该应用程序需要估计大约4600 TVPs,这是一项新方法所能完成的任务。
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英文标题:
《Time-Varying Parameters as Ridge Regressions》
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作者:
Philippe Goulet Coulombe
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最新提交年份:
2021
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分类信息:
一级分类:Economics 经济学
二级分类:Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述:Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论,微观计量经济学,宏观计量经济学,通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容,统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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一级分类:Statistics 统计学
二级分类:Applications 应用程序
分类描述:Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学,教育学,流行病学,工程学,环境科学,医学,物理科学,质量控制,社会科学
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一级分类:Statistics 统计学
二级分类:Machine Learning 机器学习
分类描述:Covers machine learning papers (supervised, unsupervised, semi-supervised learning, graphical models, reinforcement learning, bandits, high dimensional inference, etc.) with a statistical or theoretical grounding
覆盖机器学习论文(监督,无监督,半监督学习,图形模型,强化学习,强盗,高维推理等)与统计或理论基础
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英文摘要:
Time-varying parameters (TVPs) models are frequently used in economics to model structural change. I show that they are in fact ridge regressions. Instantly, this makes computations, tuning, and implementation much easier than in the state-space paradigm. Among other things, solving the equivalent dual ridge problem is computationally very fast even in high dimensions, and the crucial "amount of time variation" is tuned by cross-validation. Evolving volatility is dealt with using a two-step ridge regression. I consider extensions that incorporate sparsity (the algorithm selects which parameters vary and which do not) and reduced-rank restrictions (variation is tied to a factor model). To demonstrate the usefulness of the approach, I use it to study the evolution of monetary policy in Canada. The application requires the estimation of about 4600 TVPs, a task well within the reach of the new method.
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PDF链接:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2009.00401