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摘要翻译：
项目管理中的一个主要风险来源是对项目成本、需求和其他影响的不准确预测。本文以2002年诺贝尔经济学奖的不确定性决策理论为基础，提出了一种新的化解风险的方法。第一，论文文件的不准确性和项目管理中的风险。其次，从乐观偏见和战略失实两个方面解释了不准确。第三，提出了一种很有前途的新方法“参考类预测”的理论基础，该方法通过基于可比项目的参考类的实际绩效来实现预测的准确性，从而绕过了乐观偏见和战略错误陈述。第四，介绍了大型交通基础设施项目成本预测的第一个实际参考类预测实例。最后，对参考类预测的潜力和障碍进行了评估。
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英文标题：
《From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right》
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作者：
Bent Flyvbjerg
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最新提交年份：
2013
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Computer Science 计算机科学
二级分类：Computers and Society 计算机与社会
分类描述：Covers impact of computers on society, computer ethics, information technology and public policy, legal aspects of computing, computers and education. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes K.0, K.2, K.3, K.4, K.5, and K.7.
涵盖计算机对社会的影响、计算机伦理、信息技术和公共政策、计算机的法律方面、计算机和教育。大致包括ACM学科类K.0、K.2、K.3、K.4、K.5和K.7中的材料。
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英文摘要：
A major source of risk in project management is inaccurate forecasts of project costs, demand, and other impacts. The paper presents a promising new approach to mitigating such risk, based on theories of decision making under uncertainty which won the 2002 Nobel prize in economics. First, the paper documents inaccuracy and risk in project management. Second, it explains inaccuracy in terms of optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Third, the theoretical basis is presented for a promising new method called "reference class forecasting," which achieves accuracy by basing forecasts on actual performance in a reference class of comparable projects and thereby bypassing both optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Fourth, the paper presents the first instance of practical reference class forecasting, which concerns cost forecasts for large transportation infrastructure projects. Finally, potentials for and barriers to reference class forecasting are assessed.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1302.3642
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