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摘要翻译：
本文提出了一个模型来内生地模拟来自不可再生资源的能源载体的边际生产成本、消耗、耗竭路径和时间尺度的演化。这种边际成本可以用来模拟能源商品的长期平均价格形成。在以前建立全球能源经济潜力数据库的基础上，这项工作利用不可再生资源的成本分布来评估全球能源商品的流动。给出了一个数学框架来计算给定外生商品价格路径的能源资源内生流动。在给定外生载体需求的情况下，这个框架可以反过来用于计算能源载体生产的外生边际成本。使用独立于经济的刚性价格非弹性假设，这两种方法产生了限制情景，描述了自然资源的极端使用。这有助于描述化石燃料和天然铀等剩余不可再生资源的现状和可能用途。然而，这一理论是为在允许技术替代的经济或技术模型中使用而设计的。在这项工作中，它是在全球电力部门模型FTT：power中实现的。给出了政策含义。
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英文标题：
《On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable
resources and the price of energy commodities》
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作者：
Jean-Francois Mercure and Pablo Salas
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最新提交年份：
2013
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Mathematics 数学
二级分类：Dynamical Systems 动力系统
分类描述：Dynamics of differential equations and flows, mechanics, classical few-body problems, iterations, complex dynamics, delayed differential equations
微分方程和流动的动力学，力学，经典的少体问题，迭代，复杂动力学，延迟微分方程
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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英文摘要：
A model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolution of the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non-renewable resources, their consumption, depletion pathways and timescales. Such marginal costs can be used to simulate the long term average price formation of energy commodities. Drawing on previous work where a global database of energy resource economic potentials was constructed, this work uses cost distributions of non-renewable resources in order to evaluate global flows of energy commodities. A mathematical framework is given to calculate endogenous flows of energy resources given an exogenous commodity price path. This framework can be used in reverse in order to calculate an exogenous marginal cost of production of energy carriers given an exogenous carrier demand. Using rigid price inelastic assumptions independent of the economy, these two approaches generate limiting scenarios that depict extreme use of natural resources. This is useful to characterise the current state and possible uses of remaining non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels and natural uranium. The theory is however designed for use within economic or technology models that allow technology substitutions. In this work, it is implemented in the global power sector model FTT:Power. Policy implications are given.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1209.0708
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