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摘要翻译：
我们将评估策略的综合控制重新定义为反事实预测问题，并用受机器学习启发的非参数模型取代其线性回归。所提出的方法使我们能够实现准确的反事实预测，为我们提供了理论上的保证。我们将我们的方法应用于一项备受争议的政策：将美国大使馆迁至耶路撒冷。在以色列和巴勒斯坦，我们发现自2017年12月6日宣布搬迁以来的48周内，平均每周冲突数量增加了约103%。通过使用适形推理和安慰剂测试，我们证明了我们的模型，并发现增加在统计学上是显著的。
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英文标题：
《Tree-based Synthetic Control Methods: Consequences of moving the US
Embassy》
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作者：
Nicolaj S{\o}ndergaard M\"uhlbach and Mikkel Slot Nielsen
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最新提交年份：
2021
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分类信息：
一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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英文摘要：
We recast the synthetic controls for evaluating policies as a counterfactual prediction problem and replace its linear regression with a nonparametric model inspired by machine learning. The proposed method enables us to achieve accurate counterfactual predictions and we provide theoretical guarantees. We apply our method to a highly debated policy: the relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem. In Israel and Palestine, we find that the average number of weekly conflicts has increased by roughly 103\% over 48 weeks since the relocation was announced on December 6, 2017. By using conformal inference and placebo tests, we justify our model and find the increase to be statistically significant.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1909.03968
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