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摘要翻译：
本研究的重点是收集和准备全球航空客运量的数据，并分析旅行禁令对航空业的影响。根据2010年1月至2019年10月的历史数据，建立了预测模型，以确定参考基线。这项研究利用从在线航班跟踪平台和在线预订系统中提取的飞机移动，还首次评估了由于新冠肺炎疫情，世界各地航班活动最近的变化。为了研究航空旅行禁令对航空及其社会经济的影响，基于过去的流行病危机和观察到的航班量构建了几种情景。事实证明，根据这一假设情景，2020年第一季度，根据观测数据，航空损失的影响可能会使世界国内生产总值负下降0.02%至0.12%，在最坏的情况下，到2020年底，损失可能高达1.41-1.67%，失业可能达到2500万至3000万人。以欧盟27国为例，到2020年底，GDP损失可能达到1.66-1.98%，在最坏的情况下，失业人数将从4200万到500万。短期内，一些国家将受到比其他国家更大的影响，大多数欧洲航空公司将受到旅行禁令的影响。
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英文标题：
《Estimating and Projecting Air Passenger Traffic during the COVID-19
Coronavirus Outbreak and its Socio-Economic Impact》
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作者：
Stefano Maria Iacus, Fabrizio Natale, Carlos Satamaria, Spyridon
Spyratos, and Michele Vespe
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：
一级分类：Statistics 统计学
二级分类：Applications 应用程序
分类描述：Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学，教育学，流行病学，工程学，环境科学，医学，物理科学，质量控制，社会科学
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一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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英文摘要：
The main focus of this study is to collect and prepare data on air passengers traffic worldwide with the scope of analyze the impact of travel ban on the aviation sector. Based on historical data from January 2010 till October 2019, a forecasting model is implemented in order to set a reference baseline. Making use of airplane movements extracted from online flight tracking platforms and on-line booking systems, this study presents also a first assessment of recent changes in flight activity around the world as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. To study the effects of air travel ban on aviation and in turn its socio-economic, several scenarios are constructed based on past pandemic crisis and the observed flight volumes. It turns out that, according to this hypothetical scenarios, in the first Quarter of 2020 the impact of aviation losses could have negatively reduced World GDP by 0.02% to 0.12% according to the observed data and, in the worst case scenarios, at the end of 2020 the loss could be as high as 1.41-1.67% and job losses may reach the value of 25-30 millions. Focusing on EU27, the GDP loss may amount to 1.66-1.98% by the end of 2020 and the number of job losses from 4.2 to 5 millions in the worst case scenarios. Some countries will be more affected than others in the short run and most European airlines companies will suffer from the travel ban.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08460
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