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摘要翻译：
本文利用中国独生子女政策的数据，评价了独生子女对心理健康的影响。我们使用工具变量方法来解决生育决策和心理健康之间潜在的不可测量的混淆，其中工具变量是一个关于独生子女政策执行强度的指标。我们在局部工具变量方法和主分层之间建立了一个分析联系，以适应连续工具变量。在主分层框架内，我们假设了一个贝叶斯层次模型来推断政策利益的各种因果关系，同时调整聚类数据结构。我们将该方法应用于中国家庭小组研究的数据，发现独生子女对一些亚群的自我报告心理健康的负面影响很小，但在统计学上显著。我们的分析揭示了治疗效果在观察和未观察特征方面的异质性。尤其是城市男性受独生子女的影响最大，如果家庭对独生子女政策的抵制程度越高，其负面影响就越大。我们还进行敏感性分析，以评估关键工具变量假设。
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英文标题：
《Is being an only child harmful to psychological health?: Evidence from
an instrumental variable analysis of China's One-Child Policy》
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作者：
Shuxi Zeng, Fan Li and Peng Ding
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：
一级分类：Statistics 统计学
二级分类：Applications 应用程序
分类描述：Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学，教育学，流行病学，工程学，环境科学，医学，物理科学，质量控制，社会科学
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一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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英文摘要：
This paper evaluates the effects of being an only child in a family on psychological health, leveraging data on the One-Child Policy in China. We use an instrumental variable approach to address the potential unmeasured confounding between the fertility decision and psychological health, where the instrumental variable is an index on the intensity of the implementation of the One-Child Policy. We establish an analytical link between the local instrumental variable approach and principal stratification to accommodate the continuous instrumental variable. Within the principal stratification framework, we postulate a Bayesian hierarchical model to infer various causal estimands of policy interest while adjusting for the clustering data structure. We apply the method to the data from the China Family Panel Studies and find small but statistically significant negative effects of being an only child on self-reported psychological health for some subpopulations. Our analysis reveals treatment effect heterogeneity with respect to both observed and unobserved characteristics. In particular, urban males suffer the most from being only children, and the negative effect has larger magnitude if the families were more resistant to the One-Child Policy. We also conduct sensitivity analysis to assess the key instrumental variable assumption.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.09130
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